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Vikings vs. Packers Betting Pick

Opening Line: Packers -9
Over/Under: 48

Time: 8:25 PM EST Thursday October 2, 2014 on CBS / NFL

Minnesota Vikings (2-2) vs. Green Bay Packers (2-2)

Both the Packers and Vikings are coming off a win and both of them and the Bears are 2-2 and trailing the 3-1 Lions in the NFC North. Even without Adrian Peterson the Vikings have a solid rushing offense, which ranks 8th in the league, and they will be facing a Green Bay rushing defense that ranks dead last in the NFL.

These teams played to a rare tie last season in Green Bay.

Aaron Rodgers quieted his critics last week after a bad outing by passing for over 300 yards with 4 TD and 0 INT last week against the Bears. He may have to carry the offense again, as RB Eddie Lacy is going through a HUGE sophomore slump of a season so far.

In their last games the Vikings beat the Atlanta Falcons 41-28 and the Packers beat the Chicago Bears 38-17.

The Vikings are 2-2 ATS with an Over/Under record of 1-3 and the Packers are 1-2-1 ATS with an Over/Under record of 3-1.

This season the Packers are 1-0 at home and the Vikings are 1-1 on the road.

Rodgers has Jordy Nelson, who leads the NFL in receiving yards, and Randall Cobb, and while the Vikings gave up 288 passing yards facing Atlanta’s Matt Ryan last week they did have 2 INT. Overall, the Minnesota pass defense ranks 117th in the league.

Lacy has not helped out Rodgers much this season and is only averaging 3 yards per carry. The Packers are waiting for him to have a breakout game and in this division match up he will be up against a Minnesota run D that ranks in the middle of the pack.

Rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater got his first start last week and injured his ankle and is questionable for this game. With Matt Cassel out for the season Christian Ponder will get the start if the rookie cannot go. The Vikings do not have a great WR corps, but Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson are each averaging over 13 yards per catch.

Look for the Vikes to rely on the run game, which was great last week in the win over the Falcons rushing for 241 yards with rookie Jerick McKinnon having 135 yards on the ground.

Betting Trends

The Vikings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win, and they have an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.

The Packers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, and they have an Over re record of 6-2 in their last 8 games.

The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against the Vikings.

In the last 7 games between these 2 teams in Green Bay the total has gone Over 5 times.

Free Betting Pick

We were impressed with the play of Teddy Bridgewater passing the ball and the tandem in the backfield of Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata that was at home and against the very porous Atlanta defense. The Packers present a different challenge for Vikings. It is unlikely that Minnesota will have a lot of success against the Green Bay secondary who has allowed the 5th fewest yards in the league through the air this season. The ground game is where they may have some success with the Pack allowing a league worst 175.8 yards per game and we expect to see to see a lot of clock eating running plays. Likewise for Green Bay who needs to run to keep their opponents pass rushers from pinning back their ears every play going after Rodgers. Minnesota has shown some weakness there so count on them establishing the run game early. A short week for both teams limits the playbook and solidifies to our opinion that this game will feature a ton of running plays to keep this game well under the posted line.

Take the UNDER 47.5‏

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