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Texas A&M vs. Alabama Free Point Spread Pick

Opening Line: Alabama -11.5
Over/Under: OFF

Time: 3:30 PM EST Saturday October 18, 2014 on CBS

No. 21 Texas A&M (5-2) vs. No. 7 Alabama (5-1)

Texas A&M did not have a good couple of weeks losing to Ole Miss and Mississippi State and with those SEC loses they are likely out of the BCS playoff picture. However, they can play spoiler to Alabama, who also has 1 conference loss. After falling to Ole Miss the Tide came back with a win last week even though it was a less than impressive one beating an unranked Arkansas team by only 1 point.

Texas A&M has not lost 3 straight games in almost 3 years.

The Alabama offense was rolling in their first 4 games, but in their last 2 games they have only scored 17 points and 14 points respectively. The Tide only had 227 yards of total offense in the Arkansas game, which was the 2nd lowest total since Nick Saban took over as head coach.

While the Alabama offense has struggled their defense has continued to play well and they rank 6th in the nation only giving up an average of 15.3 ppg. Their D will be tested in this game by an Aggies’ offense that ranks 6th in the nation in scoring.

In their last games Alabama beat Arkansas 14-13 and Texas A&M lost to Ole Miss 35-20.

Texas &M is 3-4 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 3-4 and Alabama is 1-5 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 3-3.

This season Alabama is 4-0 at home and Texas A&M is 2-1 on the road.

Alabama’s offense may get back on track facing a Texas A&M defense that has given up an average of 40.5 ppg in their last 2 games. Tide QB Blake Sims has been pedestrian in the last couple of games even though he has one of the, if not THE, best WR’s in the nation in Amari Coopers (54 rec 768 yards 5 TD).

Bama has a deep RB unit led by T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry, who both struggled in the Arkansas win. However, they will be facing a Texas A&M run defense that only ranks 81st in the nation and gave up 160 rushing yards in the loss to Ole Miss.

The dynamic offense of the Aggies is led by Ken Hill, who led the nation in QB rating after 5 games, but in the last 2 games he has 5 INT. He has a solid WR corps and he must avoid the turnover in this game and on top of that his offensive line must protect him from the Alabama pass rush.

The Aggies are a pass-first team and while the RB duo of Trey Williams and Tra Carson have combined for nearly 575 yards each failed to average over 3 yards per carry in the last game. It may be hard to run the ball in this game since the Alabama run defense ranks 3rd in the nation.

Betting Trends

Texas A&M is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall, and they have an Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 road games.

Alabama is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and they have an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 home games.

Free Point Spread Pick

Most would agree that the Crimson Tide aren’t as strong as they have been in recent seasons, but I don’t believe that it’s not much of a dropdown. They’ve played well all season but they haven’t dominated and do already have one. However, I think that’s more because of the strength of the SEC this season with Mississippi and Mississippi State especially on the upswing, but also Auburn and Arkansas are top flight teams. Texas A&M is not. Do not let a blowout opener against an unprepared South Carolina team and win that should have never happened against Arkansas. Alabama is at home and hungry and should score at will in this game against a very overrated Aggies team.

Take the Alabama Crimson Tide -11.5‏

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