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NCAA Free Betting Pick: Texas Longhorns versus Michigan Wolverines

Time: 7:45 PM EST Saturday March 22, 2014, CBS

Location: BMO Harris Bradley Center, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

The 7th seed Texas Longhorns face the 2nd seed Michigan Wolverines in the 3rd round of the Midwest Region.

In their last games: Texas beat Arizona State 87-85 and Michigan beat Wofford 57-40.

In their win over Arizona State Cameron Ridley hit a buzzer beater for the win and overall the Longhorns shot the ball well with a FG% of 53.4%. In the game every Texas starter scored in double figures.

In their win over Wofford Michigan jumped out to a 14-point halftime lead and they played great defense in the game holding the Terriers to a FG% of 34%.

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Here are some additional handicapping angles to ponder:

Michigan is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games and Texas is 0-5 in their last 5 tourney games.

The Wolverines are not a great rebounding team and they face a Texas squad that ranks 4th in the nation in rebounds per game.

Michigan has won 8 of their last 9 games.

Michigan ended the season as the nation’s 7th ranked team and on the season Texas was 5-4 facing top 25 teams.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Michigan -5
Total Line: 140
Money Line: Longhorns +190 / Wolverines -230

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Texas Longhorns: 24-10 SU 14-17 ATS
Michigan Wolverines: 26-8 SU 17-14-1 ATS

Key Betting Trends
• TEX is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• TEX is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• TEX has an Under record of 5-2-1 in their last 8 games.
• MICH is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
• MICH is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.
• MICH has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Texas Longhorns: 83.63
Michigan Wolverines: 89.25

Key Player Injuries

No injuries to report at this time.

[F] 12/27/2013 – Mitch McGary out indefinitely ( Back )

Betting Pick:

The Wolverines looked a bit shaky in the second half against the Terriers which we believe is a good thing going into their game against the Longhorns on Saturday. They certainly shouldn’t be overconfident. Texas only 5-5 straight up in their last 10 and lost every game against a quality opponent (4 losses) in that stretch. The spread is at the higher range of our comfort zone as Michigan rarely extends the margin. However, they’re the superior club here and the one we’ll be backing. Take the Michigan Wolverines -5.

Why waste money? Bet this game at and lay -105 instead of -110!

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