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TCU Horned Frogs vs. Baylor Bears ATS Pick

Opening Line: Baylor -8.5
Over/Under: 67

Time: 3:30 PM EST Saturday October 11, 2014 on ABC / ESPN2

No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs (4-0) vs. No. 5 Baylor Bears (5-0)

TCU scored a HUGE upset in their last game handing Oklahoma their first loss of the season and they will really be tested in this game on the road facing a Baylor team that has the highest scoring team in the nation. The Red River rivalry game is not the biggest one this weekend, as both TCU and Baylor are ranked in the top 10 and the last 2 unbeaten teams in the Big 12.

Baylor is riding a 12-game home winning streak and the last team that beat them at home was TCU back in 2012.

Baylor not only has a great offense, but their defense ranks 5th in the nation. However, they have played a weaker schedule than TCU so far not facing one ranked team.

Reigning Big 12 offensive player of the year Bryce Petty has been putting up big numbers this season, but did not have a good game last week facing Texas and one of his worst games last season came against TCU.

In their last games Baylor beat Texas 28-7 and TCU beat Oklahoma 37-33.

TCU is 4-0 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 3-1 and Baylor is 4-0-1 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 3-2.

This season Baylor is 2-0 at home and TCU is 1-0 on the road.

Petty was only 7/22 for 111 yards in the win over Texas, but he did pass for 2 TD. He has 2 great big play WR’s in KD Cannon (24 rec 527 yards 5 TD), who is averaging 22 yards per catch, and Jay Lee (19 rec 294 yards 4 TD). The Bears are not a one-dimensional team, as they can also run the ball with the RB duo of Shock Linwood (449 yards 8 TD), who rushed for 148 yards in the Texas game, and Johnny Jefferson (336 yards 3 TD).

TCU does have the nation’s 7th ranked defense overall, but even in the win over Oklahoma they gave up 309 passing yards and 151 rushing yards. One key for the defense will be getting to Petty in the pocket and this season TCU ranks 12th in the nation in sacks.

Trevone Boykin is one of the best duel-threat QB’s in the nation and in the big win over Oklahoma he passed for 318 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT and also rushed for 77 yards. He has a solid WR corps and will be joined in the backfield by RB B.J. Catalon, who is the 2nd leading rusher, after Boykin, with 220 yards and 4 TD.

Betting Trends

TCU is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and they have an Under record of 6-2 in their last 8 road games.

Baylor is 22-4 ATS in their last 26 home games, 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall, and they have an Over record of 22-6-1 in their last 29 home games.

TCU is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games facing Baylor.

Free Against the Spread Pick

There is always the letdown factor to consider after TCU’s big win over Oklahoma last week. I can’t handicap if that will happen, but I can go on a bit of history. The Horned Frogs late last season had two close losses and came back with strong games the following week, so I can surmise that Gary Patterson keeps this team from getting too high or low after games. One of those games following a tough loss was against the Baylor Bears. TCU took Baylor to the wire with winning the first down and yardage battle but losing by 3 points in the end. That game was at home and now the Horned Frogs must travel to Waco and play on the Bears’ home field. Baylor has had injury issues this season especially to their receiving corps but their offense doesn’t appear to be at the same level as last season. Without getting into to all the statistical information I think that the Horned Frogs are the better team here and failing a drop off in play after last week’s big win they may win this game. The points here may be a bonus and I’d have no problem playing this down to 7.

Take the TCU Horned Frogs +8.5‏

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