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Sports Betting Edge

Most amateur sports bettors are under the impression that if they bet sports long term and enough games their chances of winning are greater. This couldn’t be farther from the truth. Everyone knows that the bookmaker has an advantage more often than not. What if it was possible to have the roles reversed and you as a bettor had the advantage? This is possible as sports books are aware there is what is called advantage betting or expected value. Once you understand expected value or (EV) you chances of winning at sports betting increase.

What is expected value? In easy to understand layman’s terms it means that as a sports gambler you have an expected return on your investment. For example if the sports book is offering me equal return on my money for every bet I make, example: 100 dollars to make 100 dollars most likely over the long run I will break even. The odds are even so there is no expected value. Now let’s say the sports book is offering me 110 dollars for every 100 I bet. Over time my projected win percentage with no handicapping edge would be 50% and because I was making $110 for every event I won and losing only $100 for every loss. So every bet I have a positive expectation of making my money back +10 dollars more. So winning at sports betting requires you to be betting with a positive EV more so than hoping to win your bets ay high rate.

The sports book isn’t going to remove the vigorish they place on each point spread wager as that’s there commission so they certainly won’t pay you an extra 10% on the same wager. So, how do you find an expected value in your wagers? You look to money lines. Money lines are weighted by what the lines maker thinks the public or sharps perception of who is the stronger team. This is where you will find your hard work handicapping pays off with your Royals +145 play over the Yankees or your Rams +132 play over the visiting Seahawks.

Getting this advantage can be time consuming so most recreational sports bettors don’t bother or don’t understand how to find the +EV. Frankly profitable sports betting isn’t that much fun but if you look at it as a business you can make money.