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San Francisco 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams ATS Pick

Opening Line: 49ers -3.5
Over/Under: 43.5

Time: 8:30 PM EST Sunday October 13, 2014 on ESPN / WatchESPN

San Francisco 49ers (3-2) vs. St. Louis Rams (1-3)

This Monday night NFC West match up is one between a couple of teams going in different directions, as the 49ers have won 2 straight while the Rams have lost 2 in a row. The 49ers have gotten back to running the ball, as they have the league’s 3rd ranked rushing offense. That is a major concern for the Rams, who only rank 29th in run defense.

In the last several seasons the 49ers have dominated the Rams going 13-4-1 in their last 18 games facing them.

The Rams have had injuries to their top 2 QB’s, but Austin Davis has been playing well leading a passing offense that ranks 6th in the league. He will face a 49ers’ defense that has held opponents to less than 200 yards in each of their last 2 games.

In their last games the 49ers beat the Kansas City Chiefs 22-17 and the Rams lost to the Philadelphia Eagles 34-28.

The 49ers are 3-2 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 1-4 and the Rams are 1-3 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 2-2.

This season the Rams are 0-2 at home and the 49ers are 1-1 on the road.

While the 49ers have leaned more on the run the last couple of games QB Colin Kaepernick has been playing well with 4 TD and only 1 INT in his last 3 games. Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree are the top 2 WR’s each with 25 catches for the season and one bright spot for St. Louis is that they have the league’s top-ranked pass defense.

Frank Gore has the 5th most rushing yards in the league and in his last 2 games he has rushed for 226 yards. He torched the Rams in St. Louis last season rushing for a season high 153 yards.

Davis has passed for 327 yards and 375 yards, respectively, in his last 2 games and in the last game facing the Eagles he had 3 TD and was not picked off. He has a decent WR corps and Brian Quick has been his main target with 21 catches for 322 yards on the season. The San Francisco pass defense ranks 5th in the league, but their pass rush has struggled without the suspended Aldon Smith with only 5 sacks all season.

Davis may have to do it all on offense, as the Rams have struggled to run the ball this season. Zac Stacy has been hampered by a calf injury and has failed to rush for over 71 yards in any game. He will face a stout San Fran run defense that ranks 4th in the league.

Betting Trends

The 49ers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games, 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, and they have an Under record of 5-0 in their last 5 road games.

The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and they have an Under record of 7-2 in their last 9 games.

The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games between these 2 teams.

Free Point Spread Pick

The 49ers are banged up on offense with WR Michael Crabtree TE Vernon Davis nursing injuries and they may have to do without starting RT Anthony Davis this week against the Rams. St. Louis has been piling up the yardage and lighting up the scoreboard in the last two weeks, but will find the points more difficult to come by Monday night against the San Francisco defense. We expect this game to be low scoring with the victor getting a 17-14 type win. So, with 3.5’s still available we believe that the home dog is the way to go.

Take the St. Louis Rams +3.5 -120

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