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San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers Total Pick

Time: 4:40 PM EST Sunday January 5, 2014, Fox

The last Wildcard game of the weekend has the San Francisco heading to frozen Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers.

This will be the second time that these two teams have met this season with the 49ers taking the Week 1 match-up 34-28 in Candlestick Park.

San Francisco comes into this game on a 6-game win streak which included 3 road wins and win finally over their nemesis Seahawks.

The Packers playoff chances seemed to be lost when they suffered a 40- 10 loss on Thanksgiving Day to the Lions, but they regrouped with 3 wins on their last 4 games and come into this game on a modest 2-game winning streak.

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San Francisco ranks 3rd in rushing offense (137 YPG), 5th in total defense (316.9 YPG) and 4th in rushing defense ((6.5 YPG).

Green Bay ranks 3rd in passing offense with 400.2 yards per game which is even more impressive considering that starting QB Aaron Rodgers missed 7 games this season. Other notable rankings include 8th in scoring (26.1 PPG), 6th in yards per pass (11.7) and 25th in defensive scoring (26.8 PPG)

In this match-up the home team is 4-1 in the last 5 and 7-3 in the last 10. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 3 straight. The total has gone OVER the betting line in 6 straight and 7 of the last 10 times these two teams have met.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: San Francisco -2.5
Over/Under Total Line: 45.5

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records

San Francisco 49ers: 12-4 SU/10-5-1 ATS
Green Bay Packers: 8-7-1 SU/7-9 ATS

Key Betting Trends

  • SF games have gone over the total in 15 of thier last 23 games
  • SF is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • SF games have gone over the total in 8 of San Francisco’s last 11 games on the road
  • SF is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
  • GB is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
  • GB is 1-3-1 in its last 5 games at home
  • GB is 8-1 straight up in its last 17 games at home vs. SF
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco’s last 5 games when playing Green Bay

Sagarin Power Rankings

San Francisco 49ers: 30.07
Green Bay Packers: 16.78

Key Player Injuries

49ERS
1/5/2014 Mike Iupati G Probable Knee
1/5/2014 Justin Smith DT Probable Shoulder
1/5/2014 Carlos Rogers CB Questionable Hamstring
1/5/2014 Jon Baldwin WR Probable Illness
1/5/2014 Dan Skuta LB Questionable Foot
1/5/2014 Frank Gore RB Probable Knee
1/5/2014 Eric Wright CB Questionable Hamstring
1/5/2014 Michael Crabtree WR Probable Quadriceps
1/5/2014 Jonathan Goodwin C Probable Not Injury Related
1/5/2014 NaVorro Bowman LB Probable Wrist
1/5/2014 Tarell Brown CB Probable Ribs
12/29/2013 Vance McDonald TE Probable Ankle
12/29/2013 Kassim Osgood WR Probable Shin

PACKERS
1/5/2014 Eddie Lacy RB Probable Ankle
1/5/2014 Brad Jones LB Probable Ankle
1/5/2014 Nick Perry LB Probable Foot
1/5/2014 Ryan Pickett DT Probable Knee
1/5/2014 Clay Matthews LB Out Thumb
1/5/2014 Mike Neal LB Probable Abdomen
12/29/2013 Jake Stoneburner TE Probable Illness
12/29/2013 Ryan Taylor TE Probable Illness
12/29/2013 Andrew Quarless TE Probable Ankle
12/29/2013 Aaron Rodgers QB Probable Collarbone
12/22/2013 Brandon Bostick TE Out Foot
12/22/2013 Johnny Jolly DT Out Shoulder, Neck
12/22/2013 C.J. Wilson DE Questionable Ankle

Over/Under Pick:

The Packers were able to get 160 yards on the ground versus the Bears’ porous run defense which comes as no surprise as this team has run the ball well in many games this season. Green Bay finished No. 7 in the league in rushing this season, but has struggled at times against strong defenses. So, they may find the going tough this week when they face the 49ers’ No. 4 run D.
The Packers finished No. 7 in the league in rushing, so it was no surprise that they were able to romp for 160 yards against the Bears’ porous run defense. Rookie RB Eddie Lacy has been a difference maker, but he is dealing with an ankle injury and may not be as effective. Even if Lacy’s health is not a concern, they may find things a little more difficult against the 49ers who finished 4th in the league at stopping the run. That may not bode well for Green Bay who scored 13 or fewer points in 3 of the 4 games that they failed to reach 100 yards on the ground. We are not of that opinion. San Francisco held them to fewer than 100 yards in Week 1, but the Pack still hung 28 on the board passing for 322 yards. Green Bay passed for 313 yards last week and while that was against Chicago, both QB Rodgers and WR Cobb were returning from injury and we expect their play to improve this week. They don’t have TE Finley like they did in Week 1, but the rest of the pieces are there. Keep in mind that the Niners showed cracks in their secondary allowing their last two opponents to air it out for over 300 yards per game.

The 49ers offense is the healthiest it’s been all season and while they did score only 23 last week, they were facing one of the better defenses in the league. They did score over 30 in back to back games that proceeded Arizona and they have exceeded 30 points in half of their games this season. San Francisco put up 34 on the board in Week 1 versus Green Bay and that was with their top LB Clay Matthews in the lineup. It would be a stretch to expect that the Packers who have allowed 36 points to Dallas, 38 points to Pittsburgh and 28 points to Chicago in their last 3 games to come up with a big defensive effort. Does anyone remember last season’s playoff game?

Take the OVER 46 at and get reduced juice on every play.

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