San Francisco 49ers vs. Denver Broncos Spread Analysis – ATS Pick
- Updated: October 16, 2014
Opening Line: Broncos -6.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST Sunday October 19, 2014 on NBC
San Francisco 49ers (4-2) vs. Denver Broncos (4-1)
The Broncos have won 2 straight and are at 4-1, but they still trail the red-hot San Diego Chargers, who are 5-1, in the AFC West. They are 6.5-point home betting favorites facing a 49ers’ team that has also won 2 in a row.
Peyton Manning is only 2 TD away from breaking Brett Favre’s NFL record, but it may be hard to do that in this game facing a San Francisco pass defense, which ranks 2nd in the league.
The 49ers had a comeback win in their last game facing the Rams with QB Colin Kaepernick passing for 343 yards. While the Denver pass defense ranks in the middle of the pack Kaepernick will be facing a strong pass rush led by the duo of Von Miller (6 sacks) and DeMarcus Ware (4 sacks).
In their last games the Broncos beat the New York Jets 31-17 and the 49ers beat the Rams 31-17.
The 49ers are 4-2 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 2-4 and the Broncos are 2-3 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 3-2.
This season the Broncos are 3-0 at home and the 49ers are 2-1 on the road.
Manning had 3 TD and 0 INT in the win over the Jets and he has a slew of solid targets led by the WR duo of Demaryius Thomas (31 rec 491 yards 4 TD) and Emmanuel Sanders (35 rec 473 yards). The San Francisco pass rush is missing some key players, but in the Rams’ game they came up big with 5 sacks. Star LB Patrick Willis has a toe injury and is a question mark for this game and is he cannot go it will be a big blow.
The Broncos only rank 26th in the league in rushing yards per game, but they ran the ball well in the New York win with backup RB Ronnie Hillman rushing for a career high 100 yards. Hillman should get the start against with Montee Ball expected to miss his 2nd straight game due to an injury. The 49ers rank 5th in the league in run defense and they held the Rams to 93 yards on the ground in their last game.
Kaepernick had a big game against the Rams and his offensive line also played well not giving up any sacks. They have to do so again facing the solid Denver pass rush. The 49ers have a deep WR corps and they may get TE Vernon Davis back for this game, which would be a big lift.
While Frank Gore struggled to run the ball in the Rams game, 38 rushing yards 2.4 yards per carry, the Broncos will get a heavy dose of the RB. Denver has been playing the run well this season, ranking 4th in run defense, but the only team they faced with a top-flight RB, like Gore, in the Seattle Seahawks they lost.
The 49ers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games, 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games overall, and they have an Under record of 7-2 in their last 9 games.
The Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win, and they have an Over record of 13-5-1 in their last 19 home games.
Free Point Spread Pick
We’re not buying into the 49ers ability to put up points on the board. They still struggle versus teams that can stop the run combined with even an average secondary. The Broncos easily fit that bill with the 4th best run defense and the 16th ranked pass defense. On the other side of the ball Denver does have injury concerns at running back with Montee Ball out with a groin problem. However, Ronnie Hillman stepped up big time last week against the Jets above average run defense carrying 24 times for 100 yards. Against the spread the Broncos started the season 0-3 but have responded with back to back spread covers and we believe that will be three after Sunday night’s Week 7 game.
Take the Denver Broncos -6.5