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San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Point Spread Pick

Time: 4:40 PM EST Sunday January 12, 2014, Fox

Location: Sports Authority Field

The San Diego Chargers head to Denver to take on the Broncos for the third time in the last Divisional Playoffs game of the weekend.

In their last games, the Chargers shocked many bettors with their easy 27-10 win over the Cincinnati Bengals as a 7-point underdog. The Broncos had a well-earned bye week. The win by San Diego was their 5th straight and they’ve rewarded their backers with 4 point spread wins over that stretch. Denver comes into this game, winners of 4 of their last 5, but the one loss was to the Chargers in Week 15.

On the season the Broncos are 7-1 straight-up and against the point spread at home. The Chargers are 5-4 straight up and 5-3-1 ATS on the road, but they did win and cover their last 3 as visitors with wins over Kansas City, Denver and Cincinnati.

These two teams have met twice this season with the road team winning and covering both games. That appears to be a trend in this matchup with 6 straight road team covers since 2011.

Statistically the Broncos offense lead by Peyton Manning held the top spot in many categories including points per game, passing yards per game and total yards per game. The Chargers offense wasn’t far behind finishing the regular season in 12th in points scored, 4th in passing yards and 5th in total yards per game. Defensively the numbers aren’t as solid for either club with the Bolts a decent 11th in scoring defense and the Broncos 22nd.

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Betting Odds

Point Spread: Denver -10
Over/Under Total Line: 54

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records

San Diego Chargers: 10-7 SU / 10-6-1 ATS
Denver Broncos: 13-3 SU / 10-5-1 ATS

Key Betting Trends

  • SD is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • SD is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
  • SD has gone under the total in 6 of their last 8 road games.
  • SD is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win./li>
  • DEN is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC West.
  • DEN is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
  • DEN is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.
  • The total has gone over in 4 of Denver’s last 4 playoff games.

Sagarin Power Rankings

San Diego Chargers: 29.36
Denver Broncos: 26.63

Key Player Injuries

CHARGERS
[RB] 1/6/2014 – Ryan Mathews Ques Sunday (Ankle)
[T] 1/6/2014 – D.J. Fluker Ques Sunday (Foot)
[DE] 1/5/2014 – Sean Lissemore Ques Sunday (Shoulder)
[C] 1/5/2014 – Nick Hardwick Ques Sunday (Neck)
[S] 12/20/2013 – Brandon Taylor Out for the season (Knee)
[TE] 12/23/2013 – John Phillips I-R (Knee)
[DB] 12/18/2013 – Johnny Patrick I-R (Ankle)
[LB] 11/14/2013 – Larry English I-R (Bicep)
[T] 10/9/2013 – Mike Harris I-R (Ankle)
[WR] 10/1/2013 – Malcom Floyd I-R (Neck)
[LB] 10/1/2013 – Dwight Freeney I-R (Quadricep)
[WR] 9/2/2013 – Danario Alexander I-R (Knee)
[CB] 9/2/2013 – Steve Williams I-R (Pectoral)
[LB] 9/2/2013 – Jonas Mouton I-R (Knee)

BRONCOS
[DE] 1/5/2013 – Derek Wolfe Prob Sunday (Illness)
[WR] 1/5/2013 – Wes Welker Prob Sunday (Concussion)
[CB] 1/5/2013 – Kayvon Webster Ques Sunday (Thumb)
[C] 1/5/2013 – Steve Vallos Ques Sunday (Concussion)
[S] 1/5/2013 – Duke Ihenacho Ques Sunday (Concussion)
[S] 12/29/2013 – Rahim Moore Out indefinitely (Leg)
[LB] 12/23/2013 – Von Miller Out for the season (Knee)
[DT] 11/26/2013 – Kevin Vickerson I-R (Hip)
[LB] 10/27/2013 – Stewart Bailey I-R (Wrist)
[C] 10/7/2013 – Dan Koppen I-R (Leg)
[T] 9/29/2013 – Ryan Clady I-R (Foot)

Point Spread Pick:

Ryan Matthews (127 yards last game vs. the Broncos) is nursing an injury and that will have a negative impact on the Chargers offense in this game. Backup RB Woodhead was used a lot last week in the second half with Matthews on the sideline and did produce in key situations. The most noteworthy injury may be on the Broncos with star LB Von Miller sidelined. Miller has great range and with Matthews not at full strength screens and short dump passes to Woodhead might be as large part of their game plan. San Diego didn’t embarrass their selves in either game this season and come into this game as the hot team. The line has hit double digits matching their largest margin of defeat this season. Denver won by only 8 points in their victory over the Chargers and we believe this line is putting too much value in the Manning hype.

Take the San Diego Chargers +10 at and get reduced juice on every play.

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