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Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots Betting Preview – Point Spread Pick

Time: 4:25 PM EST Sunday November 3, 2013, FOX

The New England Patriots host the Pittsburgh Steelers in a AFC conference match up.

In their last games the Pittsburgh lost to the Oakland Raiders 21-18 on the road as the 2.5 point favorite, while New England came back from a 14-0 deficit at half to beat their divisional rival the Miami Dolphins 27-17 in front of their hometown fans.

The Pittsburgh Steelers beat New England 25-17 in Oct 2011. The Patriots have won 7 of their last 10 against the Steelers.

These 2 teams have gone Over the posted total in 7 of their last 9 times they’ve met.

New England has covered the spread in 9 out of the last 11 times these 2 teams faced each other.

The point spread favorite is 2-9 in their last 11 meetings.

This season New England is 4-0 at home and Pittsburgh is 1-3 on the road.

Betting Odds at 5Dimes
Point Spread: New England -6.5
Over/Under Total Line: 44
Moneyline: Steelers +225 / Patriots -265

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Pittsburgh Steelers: 2-5 SU 2-5 ATS
New England Patriots: 6-2 SU 4-4 ATS

Key Betting Trends
• PIT is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• PIT is Steelers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
• PIT is 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 vs. AFC.
• NE is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• NE is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• NE is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Pittsburgh Steelers: 14.06
New England Patriots: 21.45

Key Player Injuries

Pittsburgh
[G] 11/02/2013 – Terrence Cody Prob Sunday (Knee)
[LB] 11/02/2013 – Lawrence Timmons Prob Sunday (Hand)
[T] 10/31/2013 – Guy Whimper Prob Sunday (Knee)
[LB] 10/28/2013 – Sean Spence Ques Sunday (Knee)
[TE] 10/28/2013 – Richard Gordon Ques Sunday (Toe)
[WR] 11/02/2013 – Markus Wheaton Out Sunday (Finger)
[G] 11/02/2013 – David Decastro Out Sunday (Ankle)
[DB] 11/02/2013 – Curtis Brown Out Sunday (Personal)
[T] 10/15/2013 – Levi Brown I-R (Tricep)
[TE] 10/15/2013 – David Johnson I-R (Wrist)
[TE] 10/07/2013 – Plaxico Burress I-R (Shoulder)

New England
[OL] 11/02/2013 – Marcus Cannon Prob Sunday (Shoulder)
[WR] 11/02/2013 – Matt Slater Prob Sunday (Wrist)
[WR] 11/02/2013 – Julian Elelman Prob Sunday (Thigh)
[TE] 11/02/2013 – Rob Gronkowski Prob Sunday (Back)
[QB] 11/02/2013 – Tom Brady Prob Sunday (Shoulder)
[RB] 11/02/2013 – Brandon Bolden Prob Sunday (Knee)
[WR] 11/01/2013 – Danny Amendola Prob Sunday (Groin)
[CB] 11/01/2013 – Kyle Arrington Ques Sunday (Groin)
[KR] 10/28/2013 – Leon Washington Ques Sunday (Ankle)
[CB] 10/28/2013 – Aqib Talip Ques Sunday (Hip)
[DL] 11/02/2013 – Tommy Kelly Out Sunday (Knee)

Next Game
Buffalo @ Pittsburgh
New England @ Carolina

Our Selection : The Patriots are a very ugly 6-2 with two of the wins against Buffalo and New Orleans arguably being games they should have lost. The Pats’ offense has struggled all season and while they have scored 27 or more points in 4 of their last 5 game and do have the No. 12 scoring offense, they haven’t moved the ball consistently.
It all comes down to the running game for New England. If they can run the ball, the offense can dominate the game. We don’t think that’s likely here. Pittsburgh held the Jets and Ravens to under 100 rushing yards (Jets 83, Ravens 82) and may have turned the corner. The Raiders’ QB Terrelle Pryor did surprise the Steelers’ defense with a 93 yard run on the first play of the game against them but allowed 104 of the rest of the game. The Patriots’ offensive line took a hit last week with starting right tackle Sebastian Vollmer lost for the season with a broken leg. Marcus Cannon will take over and while he did play well last week he is still a drop down from Vollmer.
Pittsburgh should be in desperation mode needing a win this week to keep their slim chances at a successful season alive. The Steelers will need to protect Roethlisberger much better for Ben to have a chance to exploit a beat up Pats’ secondary. We think this will go down to the wire with Pittsburgh falling short, but covering the spread. Take the Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5 or lay the money and buy up to 7 -130 at 5Dimes and get reduced juice on every play.

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