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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Total Pick

Time: 8:10 PM EST Monday July 7, 2014 FSWI

Location: Miller Park, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

The Milwaukee Brewers host the Philadelphia Phillies in a National League match up.

In their last games: The Phillies lost to the Pittsburgh Pirates 6-2 and the Brewers lost to the Cincinnati Reds 4-2.

In yesterday’s game with the Pirates the Phillies gave up 2 runs in the 1st inning and 3 more in the 8th for the 6-2 loss.

In their loss to the Reds the game was tied late before Cincinnati scored 2 runs in the 8th inning for the win.

The Brewers are 3-0 facing the Phillies this season.

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Here are some additional handicapping angles to ponder:

In the last 4 games between these 2 teams the total has gone Over every time.

The Phillies are 4-1 in Cole Hamels’ last 5 starts against the Brewers.

The Brewers have won their last 6 games against the Phillies.

The Brewers are 10-4 in Marco Estrada’s last 14 home starts facing a team with a losing record.

Pitching Match Up
Philadelphia: Cole Hamels (2-5, 2.98 ERA)
Milwaukee: Marco Estrada (7-5, 4.94 ERA)

Betting Odds

Money Line: Phillies +105 / Brewers -115
Run Line: Milwaukee -1.5 +175
Total Line: 7.5 Over -120

Straight up, Over/Under and Runline Records
Philadelphia Phillies: 37-51 SU / O/U 44-38 / Run Line W/L 41-47
Chicago Cubs: 52-37 SU / O/U 45-40 / Run Line W/L 44-45

Key Betting Trends
• PHIL is 3-13 in their last 16 overall.
• PHIL is 1-7 in their last 8 road games.
• PHIL has an Under record of 4-1-1 in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
• MIL is 1-5 in their last 6 overall.
• MIL is 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
• MIL has an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.

Key Player Injuries

PHILLIES
Carlos Ruiz C D.L. Jun 27 concussion Out indefinitely
Wil Nieves C D.L. Jun 24 quadriceps Mid-July?
Reid Brignac 3B D.L. Jun 20 ankle Out indefinitely
Mike Adams RP D.L. Jun 7 shoulder Out indefinitely
Jeff Manship RP D.L. Jun 1 quadriceps Mid-July?
Cliff Lee SP D.L. May 21 elbow Mid-July

BREWERS
Ryan Braun OF Out Jul 5 back Day-to-day
Tyler Thornburg RP D.L. Jun 7 elbow Out indefinitely
Jim Henderson RP D.L. May 2 shoulder Mid-July?

Total Pick:

The Phillies send Cole Hamels to the mound tonight. Hamels had been super sharp with 6 earned runs combined in 6 starts before a mediocre outing versus the Marlins in his last. He had owned the Brewers prior to his last start with 4 consecutive quality starts although some of the games go back to 2010. Marco Estrada was a batter’s best friend for most of June with 3 atrocious starts but has been effective in his last two registering back to back quality starts. He did face Philadelphia earlier this season getting the win in a 6 inning 2-run performance. Neither team is hitting right now with the Phillies scoring 11 runs and the Brewers scoring 10 in their last 5 games. The trend is to the over in this match-up with the 3 previous games this year going Over the posted line and 4 straight dating back to 2013. However, the numbers support a low scoring game. Take Under 7.5 +110.

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