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Oklahoma Sooners vs. TCU Horned Frogs Point Spread Pick

Opening Line: Oklahoma -5
Over/Under: 56.5

Time: 3:30 PM EST Saturday October 4, 2014 on FOX

No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) vs. No. 25 TCU Horned Frogs (3-0)

These 2 top 25 teams are known for close games over the last couple of seasons and since Bob Stoops became the coach of OU one of his only 2-non-conference home losses came at the hands of the Horned Frogs. Now TCU is in the Big 12 and the betting underdog even at home.

TCU has the nation’s 2nd ranked defense only allowing an average of 7 ppg, but this game will show if their D is for real. They have played a weak schedule in their three games and their only win over a team from a major conference was facing Minnesota, which is one of the weaker teams in the Big 10. The Horned Frogs will be facing an Oklahoma offense that ranks 9th in the nation averaging 44.8 ppg.

The Horned Frogs also have a balanced offense as well, but, again, their strength of schedule so far has been less than impressive. This will be the first game in the next 3 for the Horned Frogs where they face a team currently in the top 25.

In their last games Oklahoma beat West Virginia 45-33 and TCU beat SMU 56-0.

Oklahoma is 3-1 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 3-1 and TCU is 3-0 ATS with an Over/Under record of 2-1.

This season TCU is 2-0 at home and Oklahoma is 2-0 on the road.

Oklahoma’s main goal in this game has to be to keep TCU QB Trevone Boykin from having a big game. He is a solid duel-threat QB that leads the Horned Frogs in not only passing yards per game, but also rushing yards per game as well. However, he has many weapons that he uses out of the spread offense that the Sooners’ D has to be wary of.

While both teams have high scoring offenses, OU ranks 2nd in the Big 12 in pass and TCU ranks 3rd, the last 2 meetings have been tough more low-scoring defensive battle and not shootouts.

QB Trevor Knight leads the OU offense and while he has played well he only has 4 TD and already has 3 INT. Sterling Shepard is the main WR that the TCU pass defense has to keep tabs on, as he is a big play guy that is averaging over 19 yards per catch.

Samaje Perine is the leading rusher for the Sooners and with Keith Ford likely out with an injury he will have to carry the load in the backfield.

Betting Trends

Oklahoma is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and they have an Over record of 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games.

TCU is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games, and they have an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.

In the last 5 games between these 2 teams the total has gone Under every time.

Free Point Spread Pick

The TCU Horned Frogs returned 8 starters on both sides of the ball and it shows with their performance. They showed signs in 2013 of being a force to be reckoned with starting with a narrow 3 point defeat to the Sooners and finishing the season going 1-3 in Big 12 play with the 3 loses to West Virginia, Kansas State and Baylor by a combined 8 points! The have really come into their own this season winning their three games by average margin of victory of 37 points. Some may think that all 3 games have come against inferior competition, but I disagree. The Minnesota Gophers are at the least a mid-level Big Ten team and the Frogs had no probable disposing of them scoring the first 30 points in the 30-7 final.

Oklahoma may be the best team in the nation right now after poor games by Florida State and Oregon. Alabama is in the running, but don’t forget that the Sooners had no problem disposing of the Crimson Tide 45-31 in the Sugar Bowl last season. They shouldn’t underestimate the Horned Frogs after barely holding on at home for the win last year.

Neither team has faced an opponent of this level this season and arguably Oklahoma has the edge in play this season based on their strength of schedule, but TCU has some key advantages. They’re playing at home with revenge and have proved that they have the mental fortitude to give their all from the opening kickoff until the last play.

Take Texas Christian +5‏

This game is on the board at some of the square books at 5 which is what I suggest you play this game at Bovada

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