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North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils Over Under Pick

Time: 9 PM EST Saturday March 8, 2014 ESPN

Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, North Carolina

The 4th ranked Duke Blue Devils host the 14th ranked North Carolina Tar Heels in an ACC match up.

In their last games: North Carolina beat Notre Dame 63-61 and Duke lost to Wake Forest 82-72.

In their win over Notre Dame UNC jumped out to a 14 point first half lead and while they did not play good defense allowing the Fighting Irish to shoot 48.1% from the floor they did force 13 turnovers.

In their loss to Wake Forrest Duke was outscored by 7 points in the 2nd half and they did not have a great shooting night and only shot a 3-pt FG% of 22.2% (6/27).

These 2 teams met earlier this season at North Carolina the Tar Heels beat the Blue Devils 74-66.

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Here are some additional handicapping angles to ponder:

Duke is 16-0 at home this season and has won 32 straight at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

UNC is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games at Duke.

In the last 11 games between these 2 teams the total has gone Under 9 times.

The Tar Heels are one of the hottest teams in the nation winners of 12 straight.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: – Duke -8
Total Line: 147.5
Money Line: Tar Heels +315 / Blue Devils -380

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
North Carolina Tar Heels: 23-7 SU 16-14 ATS
Duke Blue Devils: 23-7 SU 17-12-1 ATS

Key Betting Trends
• UNC is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
• UNC is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• UNC has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• DUKE is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• DUKE is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• DUKE has an Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 games.

Sagarin Power Rankings
North Carolina Tar Heels: 86.19
Duke Blue Devils: 90.45

Key Player Injuries

TAR HEELS
[G] 12/20/2013 – P.J. Hairston out for season ( Suspension )

BLUE DEVILS
No injuries to report at this time.

Over Under Total Pick:

The Blue Devils have lost the last 5 games that they have allowed greater than 70 points including their latest when a late defensive collapse resulted in an embarrassing 82-72 loss to Wake Forest. Duke on average has allowed 63 points per game at home and while keeping the Tar Heels to that number may be a stretch we do expect Duke to extra diligent on defense tonight. Also note that North Carolina can play defense themselves holding 9 of their last 10 opponents to 72 or fewer points in regulation. The number is on the low side for these two, but the last 3 have landed under the total and we feel that’s where this one will fall. Take the UNDER 147.5.

Why waste money? Bet this game at and lay -105 instead of -110!

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