NFC Championship Point Spread Pick : 49ers at Seahawks
- Updated: January 16, 2014
Time: 6:30 PM EST January 19, 2014, FOX
Location: CenturyLink Field in Seattle
The San Francisco 49ers faceoff against the Seattle Seahawks for the third time this season in the NFC Championship game. The online sportsbooks have the Seahawks a 3.5-point favorite. The total line opened at 40 at most betting shops but has since been bet down to 38.5 as it seems many feel this will be a tight defensive battle, resulting in a low scoring affair.
In their last games, San Francisco beat the Carolina Panthers 23-10, while Seattle was able to hold off Drew Brees and the Saints beating them 23-15.
In their earlier meetings this season the series was split with both teams winning at home. In Week 2 the Seahawks beat the 49ers 29-3. In that game the 49ers Colin Kaepernick had a dismal outing against Seattle’s defense going 13 of 28 for 127 yards and 3 interceptions and a fumble. Much different game in Week 14 where the 49ers were able to get a tough 19-17 win at home with aid of a solid running attack
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Here are some stats to consider.
Both of these teams finished in top half of the league in scoring this season. The Seahawks 9th averaging 26.1 per game and the 49ers 11th with 25.4 PPG. It’s no secret that both the Seahawks and 49ers try to control the game on the ground and were both in the top 4 in rushing yards per game.
On the defensive side of the ball, both team played exceptionally well statistically. The 49ers defense was 7th in total yards allowed and an even better 4th against the rush and 5th against the pass only giving up an average of 194.5 yards through the air per game.
Seattle’s defense was even better finishing in 1st in total yards per game with 273.6 and were also tops in the league in points allowed. Let’s not forget that the Seahawks were also the top team in the NFL in defending the pass and 8th in rushing yards allowed, yielding an average 101.6 yards per game
The Seahawks are 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the 49ers at home.
These two teams have gone under the posted total in 4 of their last 5 meetings and also have a UNDER record of 3-1-1 in last 5 in Seattle.
Point Spread: Seattle -3.5 (-105)
Over/Under Total Line: 38.5
Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
San Francisco 49ers: 14-4 SU / 12-6 ATS
Seattle Seahawks: 14-3 SU / 11-6-1 ATS
Key Betting Trends
- SF is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- SF is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in January.
- SF has gone under the total in 5 of their last 6 playoff games.
- SF is 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games overall./li>
- SEA is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- SEA is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
- SEA is 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 home games.
- The total has gone under in 6 of Seattle’s last 8 playoff games.
Sagarin Power Rankings
San Francisco 49ers: 30.54
Seattle Seahawks: 32.62
Key Player Injuries
[CB] 1/14/2014 – Carlos Rogers Prob Sunday (Hamstring)
[WR] 1/13/2014 – Jonathan Baldwin Ques Sunday (Illness)
[FB] 1/13/2014 – Will Tukuafu Ques Sunday (Knee)
[FB] 1/1/2014 – Bruce Miller Out indefinitely (Arm)
[WR] 12/27/2013 – Mario Manningham Out for the season (Knee)
[DT] 12/12/2013 – Cornellius Carradine I-R (Knee)
[RB] 12/7/2013 – Marcus Lattimore I-R (Knee)
[CB] 10/7/2013 – Chris Culliver I-R (Knee)
[NT] 10/7/2013 – Ian Williams I-R (Ankle)
[DT] 1/13/2014 – Jordan Hill Ques Sunday (Groin)
[WR] 1/13/2014 – Percy Harvin Ques Sunday (Concussion)
[CB] 12/13/2013 – Tharold Simon Out for the season (Foot)
[CB] 12/9/2013 – K.J. Wright Out indefinitely (Foot)
[CB] 11/26/2013 – Brandon Browner Out indefinitely (Suspension)
[DE] 9/5/2013 – Greg Scruggs Out indefinitely (Knee)
[S ] 12/12/2013 – Jeron Johnson I-R (Hamstring)
[WR] 10/30/2013 – Sidney Rice I-R (Knee)
[FB] 10/22/2013 – Spencer Ware I-R (Ankle)
[DT] 8/27/2013 – Jesse Williams I-R (Knee)
Point Spread Pick:
Teams may be figuring the Seahawks out. Yeah they act tough, but if you run the ball down through the heart of the defense they start to wilt. You don’t pick your spots calling 15-20 runs. You run and run and run some more. On 7 occasions Seattle’s opponents carried the ball 29 or greater times this season. In those 7 games, the Seahawks went 4-3 straight up but were fortunate to win in 3 of the games. They beat Houston by 3, trailed Tampa Bay all game before winning by 3 in OT and St. Louis who outplayed them by a large margin but still somehow managed to lose by 5. The 49ers used the same game plan in their last meeting in this matchup running for 163 yards on 33 carries to end their 3-game losing streak to the Seahawks getting the 19-17 home win. The Saints didn’t miss the memo last week. Running for big yardage early in the game, but had to get away from it after some blunders put them in a big hole.
Take the San Francisco 49ers +3.5 -115
Bet this game at 5Dimes and lay -105 instead of -110 on this game!