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New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Free Point Spread Pick

Opening Line: Patriots -10
Over/Under: 46

Time: 8:25 PM EST Thursday October 16, 2014 on CBS / NFL

After their opening win the Jets have played a tough schedule in their last 5 games the thing is they lost every game. They are in the basement of the AFC East, are 0-2 on the road this season, and are big 10-point underdogs to the Patriots this Thursday night.

The Patriots have righted their ship and have won 2 straight and are all alone atop the division. However, they took a big hit in their last game when they lost leading rusher Stevan Ridley for the season with a knee injury.

The Patriots welcome a struggling Jets team, as their next several games are tough facing the Bears, Colts, Lions, Packers, and Chargers.

In their last games the Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills 37-22 and the Jets lost to the Denver Broncos 31-17.

The Jets are 0-5-1 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 3-3 and the Patriots are 3-3 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 4-2.

This season the Patriots are 2-0 at home and the Jets are 0-2 on the road.

Boy has Tom Brady shut up his critics in the last couple of games where he has been on fire and in the Bills game he passed for 361 yards with 4 TD and 0 INT. His top 2 WR’s in Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell has been stepping up and Rob Gronkowski looks healthy and has had 2 big games in a row. The Jets’ pass defense ranks 15th in the league and while they did not give up a ton of passing yards in their last game they did allow 3 TD and did not have a pick.

With Ridley out Shane Vereen will shoulder the rushing load and in the loss to Denver he took advantage of his greater workload and rushed for 90 yards. One bright spot for the Jets had been their run defense, which ranks 8th in the league, but they gave up 138 yards in the loss to the Broncos.

How long will the Jets continue to start Geno Smith? Head coach Rex Ryan says he believes in the 2nd year QB, but he has 6 TD on the season and 7 INT. He did not have a bad game against the Broncos, but the late INT killed their chances. He does not have a good WR corps and the New York passing offense ranks dead last in the league.

The Jets had a grand total of 31 rushing yards in the loss to the Broncos and Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson will face a New England run defense that only allowed the Bills to rush for 50 yards last week.

The Pats’ pass D, which ranks 3rd in the league, gave up 268 passing yards last week to Buffalo, but their pass rush did have 5 sacks.

Betting Trends

The Jets are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 road games, 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, and they have an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

The Pats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games, 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, and they have an Over record of 14-3 in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games between these 2 teams.

Free Point Spread Pick

Some handicappers may be fooled by the Patriots two game winning streak. We’re not one of them. Sure they passed for 346 yards against Buffalo exploiting the Bills lack of a quality safety, but they won’t have that weakness to exploit against the Jets. New York does have issues at corner, but they should be able to pressure Brady enough to limit the big plays. This is too many points for a divisional opponent to lay.

Take the New York Jets +10‏

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