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New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Over Under Pick

Time: 1:00 PM EST Sunday December 29, 2013, FOX Network

The Miami Dolphins host their AFC East divisional rival the New York Jets in a huge game for Dolphins. Miami must win if they’re to have any chance to make the post season but they will still need help from other teams.

In their last games the New York Jets beat the Cleveland Browns 24-13 at home as a 2.5 point favorite. Miami lost 19-0 to the Buffalo Bills on the road as a small 1 point underdog. The Dolphins blew a huge opportunity to lock down a wildcard spot coming up flat in Buffalo.

The Dolphins beat the New York Jets 23-3 in week 13 just 28 days ago on the road as a 1 point favorite. Miami has won 3 of their last 4 meetings and 7 of the last 10.

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These 2 teams have gone under the posted total in 5 out of the last 6 meetings.

The New York Jets are 12-3 against the spread in their last 15 trips to Miami.

The road team is 10-3-1 against the spread in the last 14 meetings between these 2 teams.

The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 times these 2 teams faced off.

This season Miami is 4-3 at home and the New York Jets are 1-6 on the road.

Betting Odds at
Point Spread: Miami -6
Over/Under Total Line: 41
Moneyline: Jets +225 / Dolphins -265

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
New York Jets: 7-8 SU 8-6-1 ATS
Miami Dolphins: 8-7 SU 9-6 ATS

Key Betting Trends
• NYJ is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games in December.
• NYJ is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games.
• NYJ is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
• MIA is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
• MIA is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
• MIA is 12-32-1 ATS in their last 45 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Sagarin Power Rankings
New York Jets: 14.02
Miami Dolphins: 20.91

Key Player Injuries

JETS
[CB] 12/23/2013 – Ellis Lankster Ques Sunday (Jaw)
[WR] 12/13/2013 – Stephen Hill Out for season (Knee)
[WR] 12/5/2013 – Josh Cribbs I-R (Shoulder)
[LB] 11/27/2013 – Troy Davis I-R (Chest)
[TE] 11/20/2013 – Konrad Reuland I-R (Knee)
[RB] 10/15/2013 – Mike Goodson I-R (Knee)
[WR] 10/15/2013 – Clyde Gates I-R (Shoulder)
[LB] 10/9/2013 – Antwan Barnes I-R (Knee)
[WR] 10/9/2013 – Vidal Hazelton I-R (Knee)
[FB] 10/9/2013 – Lex Hillard I-R (Shoulder)
[QB] 10/9/2013 – Mark Sanchez I-R (Shoulder)
[LB] 9/4/2013 – Josh Mauga I-R (Back)
[CB] 9/2/2013 – Aaron Berry I-R (Knee)

DOLPHINS
[G] 12/15/2013 – Richie Incognito Out for the season (Suspension)
[T] 11/14/2013 – Will Yeatman Out for the season (Knee)
[T] 11/3/2013 – Jonathan Martin Out indefinitely (Illness)
[CB] 12/10/2013 – Dimitri Patterson I-R (Groin)
[CB] 12/10/2013 – R.J. Stanford I-R (Leg)
[WR] 11/3/2013 – Brandon Gibson I-R (Knee)

Over/Under Pick : The Jets running game has been consistently solid in the last half of the season rushing for more than 100 yards in 7 of the 9 games. In the last 3 weeks it has been outstanding with 143 yards versus Oakland, 157 yards versus Carolina which was a season high for Carolina and 208 yards against Cleveland which was also the most they allowed this season. New York also has more options in the passing game with the receivers being the healthiest they’ve been all season. The Jets have scored 81 points in their last 3 games which is by far the best stretch for them this season. They haven’t scored well on the road this season, but did put 20 on the board on the road against the Panthers in Week 15.
The Dolphins lead by QB Ryan Tannehill for most of the game couldn’t get a handle on the wind in Buffalo and were atrocious. Tannehill got a little banged up in the game with the Bills pass rush (7 sacks) being to much for Miami’s OL. Things should be a lot better for their offense this week. Miami‘s offense tore up the Jets’ defense racking up a season high 453 yards in their earlier matchup. They scored 23 points in that game and followed that up with 34 against the Steelers and 24 points versus the Patriots before the disaster in Orchard Park last week.
Yes we are aware of the under trend in this series with 5 of the last 6 falling under the total line. However, if you want to play the trend game 3 of the last 4 games played in Miami in this series have gone over the total. Take the OVER 41 at and get reduced juice on every play.

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