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New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons – ATS Pick

Time: 8:25 PM EST Thursday November 21, 2013, NFL Network

The Atlanta Falcons take on the New Orleans Saints in a NFC South divisional tilt at the Georgia Dome.

Last week the Saints got a 31 yard field goal as time expired to beat the San Francisco 49ers 23-20 at home, as a 3.5 point favorite. New Orleans extended their home winning streak to 6-0 this season.

In their last game Atlanta lost 41-28 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road as a 1 point favorite.

The Saints beat Atlanta in week 1 23-17 in New Orleans as a 3.5 point favorite. New Orleans have won 8 out of their last 10 meetings.

In the last 4 times these 2 teams teams faced off against each other in Atlanta, they went Under the posted total in all 4 games.

The home team has covered the point spread in all 4 of their last 4 meetings.

This season Atlanta is 2-3 at home and New Orleans is 2-2 on the road.

Betting Odds at 5Dimes
Point Spread: New Orleans -10
Over/Under Total Line: 52.5
Moneyline: Saints -420 / Falcons +335

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
New Orleans Saints: 8-2 SU 6-4 ATS
Atlanta Falcons: 2-8 SU 5-2-8 ATS

Key Betting Trends
• NO is 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• NO is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• NO is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
• ATL is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
• ATL has gone Over the posted total in 6 of their last 7 home games.
• ATL has a Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.

Sagarin Power Rankings
New Orleans Saints: 27.38
Atlanta Falcons: 15.28

Key Player Injuries

SAINTS
[TE] 11/20/2013 – Jimmy Graham Prob Thursday (Foot)
[RB] 11/20/2013 – Darren Sproles Ques Thursday (Ankle)
[DE] 11/18/2013 – Tyrunn Walker Ques Thursday (Knee)
[CB] 11/18/2013 – Ron Sweeting Ques Thursday (Hip)
[TE] 11/18/2013 – Benjamin Watson Ques Thursday (Concussion)
[S] 11/18/2013 – Kenny Vaccaro Out Thursday (Concussion)
[LB] 10/7/2013 – Victor Butler I-R (Knee)
[WR] 10/7/2013 – Joseph Morgan I-R (Knee)
[DE] 10/7/2013 – Kenyon Coleman I-R (Pectoral)
[LB] 10/7/2013 – Will Smith I-R (Knee)
[CB] 9/18/2013 – Patrick Robinson I-R (Leg)

FALCONS
[TE] 11/20/2013 – Tony Gonzalez Ques Thursday (Toe)
[DE] 11/18/2013 – Malliciah Goodman Ques Thursday (Calf)
[RB] 11/18/2013 – Jason Snelling Ques Thursday (Knee)
[QB] 11/20/2013 – Dominique Davis Doub Thursday (Knee)
[T] 11/13/2013 – Sam Baker I-R (Knee)
[WR] 10/10/2013 – Julio Jone I-R (Foot)
[T] 10/7/2013 – Mike Johnson I-R (Leg)
[DE] 9/16/2013 – Kroy Biermann I-R (Leg)
[FB] 9/16/2013 – Bradie Ewing I-R (Shoulder)
[QB] 9/3/2013 – Sean Renfree I-R (Undisclosed)

Next Game
New Orleans @ Seattle
Atlanta @ Buffalo

Our Selection : The Falcons have won their only two games this season at home at are 2-2 on the season as a host overall. Atlanta had a shot to get the money in both of their home losses losing on a last second field goal to the Jets and driving all the way down the field but failing to score the tying TD against the Patriots. They did play well versus the Saints in Week 1 but lost by 3. They are a shell of their Week 1 team with the key injury being to Julio Jones. That being said, the home team has won the last 4 in this series.
The 10 points appears over inflated on the Saints who haven’t been exactly road warriors with a record of 2-2 with the largest margin of victory being by 8 against Chicago where they were outplayed.
This is the Falcons’ Super Bowl of the season with only a Week 17 game against Carolina left of any value on the schedule. Look for Atlanta to pull out all the stops and keep this close throughout.
Take the Atlanta Falcons +10 at 5Dimes and get reduced juice on every play.

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