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New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Pick

Opening Line: Patriots -3.5
Over/Under: 45

Time: 8:30 PM EST Monday September 29, 2014 on ESPN WatchESPN

New England Patriots (2-1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)

The Patriots are 2-1 and are tied with the Buffalo Bills for first place in the AFC East, but all is not rosy in New England. Tom Brady has not looked like Tom Brady this season leading the Patriots and their 27th ranked passing offense. The rushing offense is getting much done either and the team was less than impressive in only beating the winless Raiders by 7 points at home in their last game.

The Chiefs lost their first 2 games of the season, but they won last week where they were solid on both sides of the ball. Now they hope to get RB Jamaal Charles back for this game, which would give them a huge lift.

Brady is 4-1 in his 5 career games facing the Chiefs.

The Patriots are 1-2 ATS with an Over/Under record of 1-2 and the Chiefs are 2-1 ATS with an Over/Under record of 1-2.

On the season the Chiefs are 0-1 at home and the Pats are 1-1 on the road.

In their last games the Patriots beat the Oakland Raiders 16-9 and the Chiefs beat the Miami Dolphins 34-15.

Brady does not have a great WR corps and Julian Edelman is his main target, by far, with twice as many catches as the 2nd leading target TE Rob Gronkowski One of the reasons Brady is struggling, 3 TD on the season, is that he has been hurries repeatedly and has already been sacked 7 times. The Chiefs have a solid pass rush ranking 4th in sacks and their pass defense ranks 10th.

Stevan Ridley is the leading rusher for the Pats, but is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry. While the Chiefs run defense has struggled this season New England could only muster 76 rushing yards last week against the Raiders.

KC QB Alex Smith was 19/25 for 186 yards with 3 TD and 0 INT in the win over the Dolphins, but like Brady he does not have a great WR corps. On top of that he will be facing a New England pass defense that is the top ranked unit in the league. Smith has been battered this season, as he has taken the 2nd most sacks in the league (11).

The Chiefs hope to have Charles back for this game, but Knile Davis played great last week rushing for a career high 132 yards. The New England run D ranks 12th in the league and in winning 2 straight against the Vikings and Raiders they have only given up a combined 121 rushing yards.

Betting Trends

The Patriots are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win, and they have an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 games facing a team with a losing record.

The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games, 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and they have an Under record of 23-8 in their last 31 home games.

In the last 4 games between these 2 teams the total has gone Under every time.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Maybe the old Tom Brady will return under the Monday night lights or maybe this season’s numbers are going to be the norm for Tom moving forward. The Pats’ passing game is ranked 27th in the league and has not looked good in any of the three games this season. The Chiefs have some injury concerns in the secondary with strong safety Eric berry unlikely to play and starting corner Sean Smith banged up, so New England may be able to put up some better stats on Monday. The running game is something that they have had some success with and will be facing the 27th ranked defense for yards per carry. That may also Brady in the passing game taking some of the pressure off. KC looked good last week getting their first win of the season 34-15 and will have some confidence heading into this game. We believe though that New England’s offense matches up well against the Chiefs and expect them to get the victory here. The 3 points is not a large margin to overcome and that is where are money will land on the final game of Week 14.

Take the New England Patriots -3 -120‏

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