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NCAAB Prediction: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers Betting Pick

In Thursday night college basketball action we have the No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers at the Williams Arena; Tipoff for this Big Ten matchup is 7:00PM ET.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: -6
Over/Under Total Line: OFF

In their last game Wisconsin -9 on the betting line easily beat Michigan State 68-61 coasting late to drop the point spread win. The spread loss extended their ATS losing streak to four. The 139 points scored broke off a string of six straight games where the combined points were under the posted total line.

On the season the Badgers 16-3 straight up and 11-2 on the road going 8-2 as the visitor. Against the betting line they’re a vigorish losing 14-14-1 overall with a barely in the black 6-5 ATS mark away from home. Their total numbers are an under favoring 12-17 with a 5-6 portion of that record coming on the road.

Minnesota hasn’t played since February 26th when they also played the Spartans getting the W, but not the cover in a 96-90 in OT win over Michigan State. The win their first in four games after losses to Wisconsin on the road, Northwestern at home and on the rod at Indiana. Their spread numbers have been a mixed bag in recent matches going 5-5 ATS over their last ten games. Versus the Gophers have three overs in their last four after four straight under games.

In this campaign the Golden Gophers are 17-12 with a good home record of 13-3. Against the spread they’ve been a losing proposition going 11-14-1 overall, but that number improves at home with a marginally positive 7-6 ATS mark. Over the season the over holds a slight edge with Minnesota going 12-11 on the O/U line. As a host the OVER has been the play with eight of their ten lined games surpassing the total odds.

These two met just 11 days ago with the Badgers getting the 63-53 win. However, the 10-point margin was not enough to cover the 15-points the home squad was saddled with. The win was the third straight by Wisconsin over Minnesota and the seventh over the last ten in this series. The over/under has been split in the last four at Minnesota and likewise for the last ten games.
Note that the Gophers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against Wisconsin and Minnesota is 5-1-1 ATS overall in their last 7 games against Wisconsin.

This season Minnesota is 13-3 at home and Wisconsin is 8-2 on the road.

SU and ATS Records

Wisconsin Badgers: 26-3 SU / 14-14-1 ATS
Minnesota Golden Gophers: 17-12 SU / 11-14-1 ATS

Betting Trends

• WISC is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• WISC is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
• WISC has an Under record of 6-1 in their last 7 games.
• MINN is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
• MINN is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• MINN has an Over record of 7-2-1 in their last 10 home games.

Sagarin Rankings

Wisconsin Badgers: 93.55
Minnesota Golden Gophers: 82.70

Player Injuries

WISCONSIN

[G] 01/12/2015 – Traevon Jackson out indefinitely ( Ankle )
[G] 11/13/2014 – Jordan Hill out for season ( Redshirt )
[G] 11/13/2014 – T.J. Schlundt out for season ( Redshirt )

MINNESOTA

NONE

Free ATS Pick

The Badgers claimed at least a share of the Big Ten title with their victory over Michigan State on Sunday with the key word being “share”. Wisconsin’s loss to Maryland two back on the road and their less than dominant road play overall should have them focused here. The line has opened up with the road team laying 6 and I think that leaves some value on Wisc. I’d also take a position in the first half on the Badgers if they hang a 4 or less on the board.

Take Wisconsin Badgers -6

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