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NCAAB Prediction – SMU Mustangs vs. Memphis Tigers Betting Pick

No. 21 SMU Mustangs vs. Memphis Tigers

The 17-10 Memphis Tigers host the 22-5 SMU Mustangs in an American Athletic Conference match up on 2/26/2015 at FedEx Forum; Tipoff is at 9:00 PM ET.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: SMU -1.5
Over/Under Total Line: OFF

In their last game SMU beat Temple 67-58 as a -7.5 point betting choice getting the point spread cover for their backers. The win was the Mustangs’ fourth straight and their twelfth in thirteen games. The cover was their second straight bringing their record to 7-3-1 against the spread in their last eleven games. The total points scored in the game of 125 went OVER the closing over/under line of 124.5 by just half of a point. The OVER was the fourth consecutive for SMU.

On the season Southern Methodist is very good 22-5, but have not been a solid bet overall with a 12-11-1 spread mark. Against the total line SMU has a slight edge to the OVER with 11-9-2 record. On the road the numbers are similar with the Mustangs holding a good 7-3 straight up record but are just 4-6 ATS and versus the over/under line.

Memphis beat UCF 75-65 in OT as a 7.5 point favorite in their most recent match winning and getting the point spread win for the third game in a row. The combined score of 140 points went soared above the total line of 131 for back-to-back OVERS by the Tigers after a run of four UNDERS.

In this campaign Memphis is a moderate17-10 overall with a vigorish losing 12-12 versus the betting line in lined games. At home they’ve been a good 12-4 and a profitable 9-7 ATS. Under bettors have padded their pocket this season on their games with their overall record of 9-14 O/U boosted by the Tigers home total mark of 5-10.

These met earlier this season with the visiting Memphis losing to the host SMU 73-59. The win by the home team in this series was the third straight and eighth in the last nine games. Versus the point spread the home team has gotten the cash in eight of the nine while the Mustangs have the edge against the number covering six of the nine games. The recent total numbers show a trend to the under with four of the last six going UNDER.

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Some other angles to consider:

This season Memphis is 0-2 facing ranked teams.

SMU has won 4 straight games and Memphis has won 3 in a row.

SMU has won 6 straight road games.

Memphis is 7-0 in their last 7 home games facing SMU.

This season Memphis is 12-4 at home and SMU is 7-3 on the road.

SU and ATS Records

SMU Mustangs: 22-5 SU / 12-9-3 ATS
Memphis Tigers: 17-10 SU / 12-12 ATS

Key Betting Trends

• SMU is 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
• SMU is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• SMU has an Over record of 5-0 in their last 5 games.
• MEM is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
• MEM is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• MEM has an Under record of 13-4 in their last 17 home games.

Sagarin Rankings

SMU Mustangs: 84.53
Memphis Tigers: 78.90

Injury Report

SMU
(!)[G] 01/16/2015 – Keith Frazier out for season ( Academics )
[F] 01/14/2015 – Justin Martin left the program ( Personal )

MEMPHIS
[G] 12/01/2014 – Dominic Magee will transfer ( None )
[F] 01/17/2015 – Kuran Iverson has left team ( Personal )

Free ATS Pick

I am still stinging from my loss on last nights total pick on the Baylor/Iowa State game where the Bears were 14 of 26 from behind the arc sending the game over by 5 points. But here I go once more into the fray with another total pick on the SMU at Memphis game.

SMU will have had 6 days off by the time this game tips off on Thursday night. They’ve only had that much time rest one other time this season when the faced Midwestern State off of 8 days’ rest. They were flat offensively in that game shooting only 38.3% from the field but did a sufficient job defensively holding the visitor to 61 points on 34.4% shooting. That’s the thing with extended time off. Teams are usually full of energy so we don’t see the defensive numbers fall off, but the accuracy is something that most players need real game minutes to keep sharp. Both of these teams can play defense ranking in the top flight of the NCAA and that’s what I believe it will be all about tonight.

Take the UNDER 128‏

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