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NCAAB Prediction – Indiana Hoosiers vs. Northwestern Wildcats Betting Pick

The 19-9 Indiana Hoosiers travel to the Welsh-Ryan Arena to take on the 13-14 Northwestern Wildcats in a Big Ten matchup on Wednesday February 25th, 2015; Tipoff is set for 7PM ET.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Indiana -2.5
Over/Under Total: OFF

In their last game Indiana demolished Rutgers 84-54 as a -6.5 point favorite with the spread win never in doubt in the second half. The 138 points the Hoosiers and Scarlet Knights put on the board went over the 137.5 closing total line by half a point. The win by Indiana was just their fifth in the last ten games and the betting numbers reflect the same story with a 5-5 ATS mark over that stretch of games. The OVER was the seventh in the last 10 Indiana matches and it increased their profitable total results to 17-8-1.

On the season Indiana is 19-9 straight up with a record of 14-13 against the spread and a 17-8-1 mark versus the total. On the road the Hoosiers are 4-7 straight up going 1-2 on neutral courts and 3-5 as the visitor and 6-5 ATS.

Northwestern -1.5 shut down the Nittany Lions’ offense getting the 60-39 straight up home victory and easy point spread cover. The win was the third consecutive for the Wildcats after losing 10 straight. Northwestern covered against the spread in all three wins and have been a decent bet in recent weeks going 7-3 versus the betting line in their last 10 and are in the black in conference games with a 9-5 ATS record. With Penn State chipping in only 39 points the total fell far short of the posted O/U line of 123 points bringing their Big Ten record to a marginal over favoring 8-6.

Over this campaign Northwestern is a poor 13-14 SU but they’ve made their backers money with a very solid 16-9 spread mark. They’ve been close to automatic on the road going 8-2 ATS, but at home where they are 9-7 straight up they’re a barely in the black 8-7 versus the number. Like Indiana they’ve been a good over play this season and are a strong over favoring 7-4-1 at home.

In this matchup the road team was victorious in both games last season with Indiana getting the road win and cover in a 61-56 match as a 2.5 point betting choice. In the previous match Northwestern were the upset 54-47 road winner as a 13-point dog in Indiana. The win for the Hoosiers this year was their third in the last four games between these two teams, but only their fourth in the last 10. The Wildcats have owned the ATS results get the point spread win in 8 of the last 10 in the series.

ATS Betting Trends


• Hoosiers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win.
• Hoosiers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.


• Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
• Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
• Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Wildcats are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
• Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games.

Injury Report

Indiana Hoosiers
Devin Davis Out for Season

Northwestern Wildcats
JerShon Cobb Questionable Wed.

Sagarin Rankings

Indiana 83.90
North Western 77.53

Free ATS Pick

Sure it wasn’t that long ago that Northwestern was mired in a terrible 10 game losing streak before breaking out with wins over Iowa, Minnesota and Penn State. Each win in my opinion was an improvement over the previous and I feel that the momentum is building with this team. They’ve been getting strong play from their bench during the streak making this turnaround a total team effort. Remember this team did show signs of breaking out in their losing streak with very good games against Ohio State losing 69-67 at home followed by a 68-67 loss in Maryland. The Hoosiers’ road numbers are certainly not impressive and are not worthy of being the favorite in this spot.

Take the Northwestern Wildcats +2.5‏

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