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NCAAB Pick – Loyola Marymount Lions vs Gonzaga Bulldogs Betting

The 8-17 Loyola Mary Mount Lions take on the 24-1 Gonzaga Bulldogs in NCAAB play on February 12, 2015 at the McCarthey Athletic Center in this West Coast match-up; tip off time is 9:00 PM EST.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Gonzaga -25
Under/Over Total: 134.5

The Lions are coming off a poor performance in an 87-68 loss against BYU as an 8-point dog and it won’t get any easier for them heading into Spokane to take on the number 3 ranked Bulldogs who have lost only one game this season. Ironically although Gonzaga is having a banner year they are only 11-9-2 against the spread while Loyola is marginally better at 13-10-1 ATS.

Loyola is scoring an average of only 64.1 points per game this year while allowing their opponents an average of 70 for a differential of -5.9 PPG. Third ranked Gonzaga are posting up 80.7 points per game while keeping their foes to a mere 60.7 points for an impressive +20 point scoring differential.

Both of these teams are doing well at the free throw line with the Marymount Lions shooting 71.8% compared to the Zags’ 70.2. Gonzaga generates more points from behind the arc with 7.2 baskets compared to the Lions 5.1 per game.

The last time these two met in Conference play was in January when the Bulldogs won easily in a 72-55 road routing but failed to cover the 19.5 point spread. The point spread cover by Loyola was just the fourth in the last ten matches in this series. Historically versus the over/under line in the last ten games between these two rivals the total has gone under in 8 out of the 10 matchups.

The line on this game opened with the Zags favored by 25 and the total line at 134.5.

Betting Update: Gonzaga has been bet down to -24 and the over/under has been bet up to 137under heavy wagering on the OVER.

ATS Betting Trends

Loyola MaryMount
• Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
• Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
• Lions are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
• Lions are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. West Coast.
• Lions are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS loss.
• Lions are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Lions are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• Lions are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• Bulldogs are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 games following a ATS loss.
• Bulldogs are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.
• Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. West Coast.
• Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
• Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.

Injury Report

Neither team is reporting any injuries.

Sagarin Rankings

Gonzaga 93.54
Loyola Marymount 70.18

Free ATS Pick

I’m certainly not going to suggest that the Loyola Marymount is going to give Gonzaga a tough game, however there are numbers that would suggest that they could get the money here. They do have a positive return on the road this season outplaying their odds in 8 of the11 games.. They are only 3-4 ATS on the road versus plus .500 clubs, but they are a nice 3-1 against the line when they are receiving 15 or greater points. The Bulldogs this season are just 4-4 ATS when laying 20 or greater points and will be laying their highest number of the season in this game. Admittedly Gonzaga is the toughest team that they will face this season and they did lose to them earlier this season by 17 at home, but Loyola Marymount has been decent in WCC Conference play be outscored by just 6.5 points per game.

Take Loyola Marymount +25‏

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