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NCAAB Pick Dayton Flyers vs. Boise State Broncos Betting Odds

The 25-8 Dayton Flyers face the 25-8 Boise State Broncos in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in an East Region play-in game. Tip off for the game at the University of Dayton Arena is scheduled for 9:10 PM ET.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Dayton -4
Over/Under Total Line: 126.5
Moneyline: Dayton -190 / Boise State +165

In their last game Dayton lost to VCU in the final of the Atlantic 10 Tournament 71-65 as a 2-point favorite on the neutral court game. The point spread loss was the Flyers third in their last 4 games. The 136 point put on the board went over the over/under line of 129.5 for their seventh over in their last ten games.

On the season Dayton is 25-8 straight up and 16-15 against the spread and 15-11-1 versus the O/U odds. Playing on a neutral site hasn’t been an issue for the Flyers wining four of their six games and splitting ATS and total.

Boise State as a 4.5 point favorite lost to Wyoming 71-66 in overtime in the semifinals of the MWC Tournament. The loss ended a string of 7 wins and was just their second in their last 17 games and note that Wyoming did win the MWC tourney. The ATS loss for the bankroll padding Broncos was their third in their last 17 games. The 137 point put on the board sent the total OVER the closing line of 117 by a 20 point margin. The OVER was their second straight, but they have been trending to the UNDER with a 7-4 mark in their last 11 games.

Over this campaign the Broncos are 25-8 with a 19-11 spread mark and an OVER leaning 12-11. Like Dayton they have a 4-2 record on a neutral court, but have not fared well against the number with a 2-4 record versus the line.

Boise State was 1-2 facing ranked teams this season including beating San Diego State in their late season winning streak.

Boise State’s Derrick Marks led the MWC averaging 19.3 PPG and help make the Broncos one of the best 3-point shooting teams with his 44% from behind the arc.

The winner of this game will be the 11th seed in the East Region and will face Providence in the next game.

SU and ATS Records

Dayton Flyers: 25-8 SU / 16-15 ATS
Boise State Broncos: 25-8 SU / 19-11 ATS

Betting Trends

• DAY is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
• DAY is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• DAY has an Over record of 11-4 in their last 15 games.
• BSU is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
• BSU is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• BSU has an Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 non-conference games.

Sagarin Rankings

Dayton Flyers: 82.13
Boise State Broncos: 82.41

Injury Reports


[F] 12/17/2014 – Devon Scott out for season ( Suspension )
[F] 12/17/2014 – Jalen Robinson out for season ( Suspension )
[G] 01/03/2015 – Ryan Bass out for season ( Concussion )
[F] 01/16/2015 – Detwon Rogers out indefinitely ( Knee )
[C] 11/14/2014 – Steve McElvene out indefinitely ( Eligibility )


[G] 02/28/2015 – Dezmyn Trent out indefinitely ( Ankle )
[F] 02/14/2015 – Zach Haney redshirt ( None )
(!)[G] 12/30/2014 – Anthony Drmic out for season ( Ankle )

Free NCAAB Pick

I like the Broncos here. I believe it comes down to how good that you think that San Diego State is. Boise State beat them twice winning by 10 on the road and by 15 at home. They also played a good NC. State team tough giving them all they could handle in a 6-point road loss. That’s the very same team that has a very solid home resume beating Duke by 10 and taking Notre Dame to OT before losing by 3. If the Broncos have any success from downtown they can win this game.

Take Boise State +4‏

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