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NCAA Free ATS Pick: Harvard Crimson versus Cincinnati Bearcats

Time: 2:10 PM EST Thursday March 20, 2014, TNT

Location: Spokane Arena, Spokane, Washington

The 5th seed Cincinnati Bearcats face the 12th seed Harvard Crimson in an East Region match up.

In their last games: Cincinnati lost to UCONN 58-56 and Harvard beat Brown 98-93 in OT.

In their loss to UCONN Cincinnati played pretty good defense, but they struggled with their shot with a FG% of 37.9%.

In their win over Brown in OT Harvard had 14 offensive rebounds and they shot well as a team with 4 players scoring in double figures and overall shooting 46.6% from the field.

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Here are some additional handicapping angles to ponder:

Harvard has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games played at a neutral site.

Cincinnati ranks 6th in the nation in opponents’ points allowed and Harvard ranks 13th.

Cincinnati has to play good defense to win, as their offense only ranks 237th in the nation in scoring.

Harvard did not face one ranked team all season and Cincinnati was 4-2 facing teams in the top 25.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Cincinnati -3
Total Line: 122.5
Money Line: Crimson +130 / Bearcats -150

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Harvard Crimson: 26-4 SU 16-8 ATS
Cincinnati Bearcats: 27-6 SU 13-14 ATS

Key Betting Trends
• HARV is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• HARV is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
• HARV has an Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 non-conference games.
• CINCY is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• CINCY is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• CINCY has an Under record of 8-1 in their last 9 neutral site games.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Harvard Crimson: 83.97
Cincinnati Bearcats: 85.83

Key Player Injuries

CRIMSON
[C] 11/11/2013 – Kenyatta Smith out for season ( Foot )

BEARCATS
[G] 11/19/2013 – Deshaun Morman redshirt ( Foot )
[G] 12/12/2013 – Jeremiah Davis III has left team ( Personal )
[C] 12/28/2013 – Jamaree Strickland out for season ( Eligibility )

ATS Pick:

The Crimson hasn’t played the same strength of schedule that the Bearcats having played only two tournament teams and losing both games. However, they were the road team in the two games and weren’t actually blown out losing by 8 to Colorado and 5 to Connecticut. It must be noted that they didn’t score late against second stringers to make the final respectable. Harvard was leading both teams at the half and was in the games throughout before faltering late. The lack of depth is an issue, but we believe that there were some lessons learned in those games and that combined with the neutral court may have the Crimson sticking around for the win on Thursday. Cincinnati has shown that if their opponent can limit Sean Kilpatrick’s damage they can be shut down and we believe that will be the case against Harvard.
Take the Harvard Crimson +3

Why waste money? Bet this game at and lay -105 instead of -110!

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