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NBA Prediction – San Antonio Spurs vs. Portland Trail Blazers Betting Pick

The 34-22 Portland Trailblazers host the 36-19 San Antonio Spurs in a Western Conference match up at the Moda Center on February, 25th 2015; Tipoff is at 10:30 PM ET.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Blazers -3
Over/Under Total Line: 195.5

In their last game the Spurs lost to the Utah Jazz 90-81 failing to cover the 5.5 point spread. The Loss was the Spurs third straight keeping them winless since the break. The non-cover was also the third straight for San Antonio. The 171 total points scored fell well under the 186 over/under line which has been a teend for them with six of the last seven games finishing under the total.

On the season the Spurs are a good 34-22 straight up but that record hasn’t resulted in point spread wins with an in the red ATS number of 23-31-2. Against the total they have favored the under going 24-32 verses the O/U line. On the road they’re 14-15 SU and 13-16 against the point spread odds.

Offensively San Antonio has been in the middle of the pack with most numbers scoring 100 points per game The 171 total points scored fell well under the 186 over/under line while allowing 97.2 for a + 3.3 margin. Their field goal percentage of 45.5 is ranked No. 12 and their opponents’ number is ranked No. 13 at 44.4%. They hold edges in 3-point percentages with 36.2 compared to 35.8 and in rebounds per game with 43.7 versus 42.8.

The Blazers lost to the Memphis Grizzlies 98-92 in their most recent game as 1.5 point home favorite. The loss was their second in a row and like the Spurs have not won since the All-Star break. The spread loss was also their second straight and seventh in their last 10. The combined scoring of 190 points feel short of the 192 total line for their third consecutive UNDER.

On the season the Trail Blazers are 36-19 with a ho hum 27-27-1 spread record. At home they have a 23-6 won/loss record going 15-13-1 against the betting line.
Versus the total they’ve been an under favoring 23-31-1 overall and a bankroll padding 8-20-1 at home on the over/under line.

Statistically Portland has the No. 9 ranked scoring offense putting up 101.9 points per game and the No. 6 scoring defense allowing the opposition 97.2 PPG. Their field goal percentage doesn’t impress sinking just 44.2% of their shots, but when you allow your opponent 43.2% the weakness does not frequently become a factor. It sure doesn’t hurt that they lead the league in free throw percentage 79.7 and are No. 3 in rebounds per game with 45.8.

The Blazers have won two of three games facing the Spurs this season, but San Antonio did win the last matchup. Portland has won three of the last five games in this series, but San Antonio has won six of the last ten. It’s interesting to note that the winner has covered the betting line in ten consecutive games. In the last eight games between these two teams the total has gone OVER six times.

Some other points to note:

The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five games between these two teams.

Blazers G Damian Lillard has averaged 27.3 ppg against the Spurs, which is his highest average against any team in the league.

The Blazers are 6-11 in their last 17 games.

This season the Blazers are 23-6 at home and the Spurs are 14-15 on the road.

SU and ATS Records

San Antonio Spurs: 34-22 SU / 23-31-1 ATS
Portland Trailblazers: 36-19 SU / 27-27-1 ATS

Key Betting Trends

• SA is 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
• SA is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• SA has an Under record of 6-1 in their last 7 road games.
• PORT is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
• PORT is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• PORT has an Under record of 21-8-1 in their last 30 home games.

Sagarin Rankings

San Antonio Spurs: 93.12
Portland Trailblazers: 94.11

Player Injuries

SPURS
NONE

BLAZERS
[C] 01/04/2015 – Joel Freeland out indefinitely ( Shoulder )
(!)[F] 02/24/2015 – LaMarcus Aldridge is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs. San Antonio ( Thumb )

Free NBA Pick

The Blazers rarely lose at home and the spread is low enough to maybe come into play and the winner is a big point spread cover trend in this matchup. LaMarcus Aldridge is expected back after missing the Memphis game and that should give them the boost needed to get it is done in this game.

Take the Portland Trail Blazers -3‏

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