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NBA Prediction –Miami Heat vs. Washington Wizards Betting Pick

The 34-27 Washington Wizards host the 27-33 Miami Heat in an Eastern Conference match up on 3/6/2015 at Verizon Center, Washington, DC; Tipoff is at 7:00 PM ET.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Wizards -4
Over/Under Total Line: 194

In their last game the Heat won their 2nd straight with a 100-94 win over the L.A. Lakers, but they failed to cover the 9-point spread. They have only covered the spread in 1 of their last 7 games with an ATS record of 1-4-2 in that span. In the Lakers game 194 points were scored, which was 7.5 points Under the posted total for the game. In 3 of their last 5 games the Under has been the winning bet.

The Heat not only have a better overall record on the road, but they have also been a much better betting team outside of South Beach. At home they are only 9-17-3 ATS while on the road they are a respectable 16-14-1 ATS. The Heat have failed to cover the spread in their last 2 road games. Betting the Under on Miami this season has been profitable, as they have a road O/U record of 10-21. However, in 3 of their last 4 road games the posted total has gone Over.

The Wizards are coming off a 97-92 loss to the Chicago Bulls, which was their 7th loss in their last 10 games. They were a 1.5-poont underdog in that game so they did not cover the spread. To say Washington has not been a good bet as of late would be a major understatement, as they have not covered the spread in their last 7 games. The total for the Bulls game went Over while the previous 3 games for the Wizards all went Under the posted total.

Overall the Wizards have not been a good betting team on the season at 23-37-1 ATS and at home they are only 13-18 ATS. They have not covered the spread in their last 3 home games and in their last 8 games in their house they have only covered twice. At home the Under has been the winning bet with a home O/U record of 13-17-1. In their last 5 home games the total has gone Under 3 times.

This is the 4th and final match up between these 2 teams this season and after winning the first game in Miami the Wizards have won the last 2 including winning in Miami in the last one. The home team has covered the spread in all 3 games this season and the last 6 games overall between these 2 teams. The Over has been the winning bet when these teams have matched up on the season with the total going Over in all 3 games.

Some other angles to consider:

In the last 5 games between these 2 teams in Washington the total has gone Over every time.

The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 games between these 2 teams.

The Heat have won 2 in a row and are 6-4 in their last 10 games while the Wizards are coming off a loss and are 3-7 in their last 10 games.

The Wizards have won 2 of 3 games facing the Heat this season including the last 2.

This season the Wizards are 21-10 at home and the Heat are 15-16 on the road.

SU and ATS Records

Miami Heat: 27-33 SU / 25-31-4 ATS
Washington Wizards: 34-27 SU / 23-37-1 ATS

Betting Trends

• MIA is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• MIA is 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• MIA has an Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 road games.
• WASH is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.
• WASH is 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
• WASH has an Under record of 7-3-1 in their last 11 games.

Sagarin Rankings

Miami Heat: 87.58
Washington Wizards: 90.29

Injury Report


(!)[F] 03/05/2015 – Luol Deng injured last game, probable Friday vs. Washington ( Thigh )
(!)[C] 02/22/2015 – Chris Bosh out for season ( Blood Clot )
[F] 12/15/2014 – Josh McRoberts out for season ( Knee )


[F] 03/05/2015 – Kris Humphries expected to miss Friday vs. Miami ( Groin )

Free ATS Pick

In looking at the betting trends the Over would seem to be a good bet, as that has been the winning one in all 3 games between these 2 teams this season. However, the Wizards are struggling on offense only averaging 94.8 ppg in their last 15 games and 87.3 ppg in their last 3.

Miami has been playing well and new addition G Goran Dragic has fit in nicely and has scored 21 points in each of the last 2 games. The home team has covered in every game this season, but I am going to buck that trend and the reason is these 2 teams have not faced each other in 2015 and since January 28th the Wizards are an NBA worst 3-12. The Wizards’ offense is really struggling and they will continue to do so facing a Miami defense that ranks 6th in the league in opponents’ points allowed. Take the Heat in this one in the Nation’s Capital.

Take the Heat +4

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