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NBA Prediction –Memphis Grizzlies vs. New Orleans Pelicans Betting Pick

The 33-29 New Orleans Pelicans host the 44-17 Memphis Grizzlies in a Western Conference match up on 3/7/2015 at Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA; Tipoff is at 7:00 PM ET. Check out our nba prediction for tonights match-up.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Grizzlies -1
Over/Under Total Line: 190.5

The Grizzlies are coming off a 97-90 win over the L.A. Lakers, but as a big 11-point home favorite they failed to cover the spread. They have not covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games and in that span they have only faced 2 teams that have a winning record. Memphis has the top-ranked defense in the league, which is why the total is generally set very low for their games. In their last 4 games the posted total has gone Under 2 times, but in their last 10 games the total has gone Under 8 times.

The Grizzlies are an even 15-15 ATS on the road this season and their last road game facing the Houston Rockets they covered the spread. Overall, in their last 6 games on the road they are 3-3 ATS. They have an O/U record of 14-15-1 on the road this season and while in their last 6 road games the Under has been the winning bet 4 times their last 2 have both gone Over the posted total.

The Pelicans are coming off a loss to a sub-.500 Boston Celtics team and they were at home and did not cover as 7-point betting favorites. They have not covered the spread in their last 3 games overall with their last 2 games at home. New Orleans lost to Boston 104-98, which was Over the 199.5 posted total. In their previous 3 games the Under was the winning bet.

The Pelicans have been a solid bet on the season (35-27) and have been a better home betting team for any anyone offering an nba prediction for this team at home (19-13 ATS) than on the road (16-14 ATS). New Orleans had covered the spread in 3 straight home games, but their last 2 games have been at home and while the betting favorite in both they failed to cover. In the Big Easy the Pelicans’ offense has been much better than on the road and you can tell this, as their O/U home record is 21-11 while only 12-18 on the road.

These 2 teams have split the 2 games facing each other with each winning at home. Also, in the 2 games the home team has covered the spread. Overall, the Pelicans have covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 games against the Grizzlies including their last 6 at home. While the Over has been the winning bet in 7 of the last 9 games between these teams the last time they met in New Orleans this season the total went Over.

Some other angles to consider:

The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the Grizzlies.

The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against the Pelicans.

In the last 9 games between these 2 teams the total has gone Under 7 times.

Both teams are 6-4 in their last 10 games, but the Grizzlies have won 2 in a row and the Pelicans are coming off a loss.

This season the Pelicans are 21-11 at home and the Grizzlies are 20-10 on the road.

SU and ATS Records

Memphis Grizzlies: 44-17 SU / 29-30-2 ATS
New Orleans Pelicans: 33-29 SU / 35-27 ATS

Key Betting Trends

• MEM is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• MEM is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• MEM has an Under record of 20-8-1 in their last 29 games.
• NO is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
• NO is 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• NO has an Over record of 6-1 in their last 7 home games.

Sagarin Rankings

Memphis Grizzlies: 94.55
New Orleans Pelicans: 90.59

Injury Report

GRIZZLIES

(!)[G] 03/06/2015 – Mike Conley probable Friday vs. LA Lakers ( Back )
[G] 03/06/2015 – Vince Carter doubtful Saturday vs. New Orleans ( Foot )

PELICANS

(!)[G] 01/22/2015 – Jrue Holiday out indefinitely ( Ankle )
[F] 02/22/2015 – Ryan Anderson expected to miss 2-4 weeks ( Knee )

NBA Prediction

The Pelicans had their 4-game winning streak snapped in their last game and while they have failed to cover in their last 2 home games the last time they were a betting underdog they covered.

New Orleans failed to reach their season average in points per game in the loss to the Celtics, which is surprising since Boston ranks 25th in the league in opponents’ points allowed. That does not bode well for them facing the top-ranked defense in the league in the Grizzlies. Going to buck the betting trends, as the Pelicans have been THE wager at home against he Grizzlies, but tonight Memphis will win and cover.

Take the Grizzlies -1

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