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NBA Prediction –Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Pick

The 33-31 Phoenix Suns host the 49-12 Golden State Warriors in a Western Conference match up on 3/9/2015 at US Airways Center, Phoenix, AZ; Tipoff is at 10:00 PM ET.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Warriors -5.5
Over/Under Total Line: 218

The Warriors are coming off a 106-98 home win over the L.A. Clippers where they failed to cover the 9-point spread. It was the 4th game in their last 5 games that they did not cover the spread. Even with a high total for the L.A. game set at 213 the posted total went Under. Golden State is the highest scoring team in the league, but in 6 of their last 7 games including their last 3 the Under has been the winning bet.

While the Warriors have been a solid betting team overall at 35-25-1 ATS they are a much better bet at home, as they are only 15-17 ATS on the road. They have played 3 straight home games and before that they had a 6-game road tripe where they were only 2-4 ATS. In their last 2 games on the road they did not cover the spread. On the road on the season they have an O/U record of 14-18 and in their last 6 road games the total has gone Under 4 times including their last 2.

In their last game the Suns lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers 89-79, which was their 6th loss in their last 10 games. Even losing to the Cavs by 10 points they covered the 11-point spread on the road. Phoenix has covered the spread in their last 3 games, but in their last game at home they failed to cover. In the Cleveland game the total went a whopping 43.5 points Under the posted total. While the Suns have lost 6 of their last 10 games they have covered in 6 of the last 10.

The Suns have been an even bet at home on the season at 15-15 ATS. However, in their house as of late they have only covered in 1 of their last 3 games. In their last game at home they were favored by 2 points and they were embarrassed losing to the San Antonio Spurs 101-74. The Suns have a home O/U record of 14-15-1 and the total has gone Under in their last 2 games, but they were on the road. The total also went Under in their last home game and the Over was the winning bet in their previous 2 on their floor.

In the 2 games facing each other this season the home team has won by double-digits and they also covered the spread. In the last match up on January 31st at Golden State the Warriors laid a 106-87 beat down on the Suns easily covering the 10.5-point spread. In both games the posted total went Under. The Warriors have not been a solid bet in Phoenix, as of late since they have not covered the spread there in their last 4 games.

Some other angles to consider:

The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against he Warriors.

The Suns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against the Warriors overall.

In the last 13 games between these 2 teams in Phoenix the total has gone Under 10 times.

These teams have split the 2 games facing each other this season with each winning at home.

This season the Suns are 17-13 at home and the Warriors are 22-10 on the road.

SU and ATS Records

Golden State Warriors: 49-12 SU / 35-25-1 ATS
Phoenix Suns: 33-31 SU / 33-29-2 ATS

Betting Trends

• GS is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.
• GS is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• GS has an Under record of 6-1 in their last 7 games.
• PHO is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• PHO is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
• PHO has an Over record of 6-1 in their last 7 games after a loss.

Sagarin Rankings

Golden State Warriors: 99.61
Phoenix Suns: 90.69

Injury Report

WARRIORS

NONE

SUNS

[C] 03/08/2015 – Alex Len “?” Monday vs. Golden State ( Ankle )

Free College Basketball Pick

The Warriors have won 3 in a row and in their last 2 games they have beaten a couple of the better teams in the Western Conference in the Clippers and Mavericks. The Suns have lost badly in their last 2 games facing teams with a winning record.

After the Suns had won 7-straight at home they have gone 6 of their last 10 there. Phoenix has not been good since they traded several key players and their offense has struggled. They rank 3rd in the league in points per game at 105.3 ppg, but in their last 5 games they have averaged 92.8 ppg. The Warriors shot 50% from the floor in their last game facing the Clippers and they held the league’s 2nd highest scoring team to 98 points. The Warriors have not been the bet in the Valley of the Sun lately, but they will be tonight, as they will beat the Suns and cover the spread.

Take the Warriors -5.5

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