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NBA Prediction –Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers Betting Pick

The 30-34 Indiana Pacers host the 28-36 Boston Celtics in an Eastern Conference match up on 3/14/2015 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN; Tipoff is at 7:00 PM ET.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Pacers -8.5
Over/Under Total Line: 193

The Celtics beat the Orlando Magic 95-88 at home in their last game and they covered the 5-point spread. They have covered the spread in their last 3 games overall and in their last 10 games they have an ATS record of 7-2-1. The total for the Orlando Magic game went Under, which was the 3rd straight game for Boston where the Under was the winning bet. In 6 of their last 8 games the posted total has gone Under. Overall the Celtics have won 3 straight and 7 of their last 10 games.

The Celtics are 8-games under .500 overall, but they have been a soli bet at home (18-14-1 ATS) and on the road (19-12). They have covered the spread in 2 of their last 3 road games. While the Over has been the winning bet at home on the season (O/U 18-14-1) on the road the Under has been the call (15-16). In their last 4 games on the road the total has gone Over twice and Under twice. In their last 3 games overall the posted total was not set at over 199 points and all of the games still went Under.

The Pacers are hot as they have won 7 straight and 9 of their last 10 games. In their last game they beat the Milwaukee Bucks 109-103 in OT, but at home they failed to cover the 7-point spread. They have not covered in 2 of their last 3 games and in their previous 7 games they had covered 6 times. The total for the Milwaukee game was posted at 188, so the Over was the winning bet. The total for the Pacers has gone Over in their last 2 games after going Under for the 7 previous games.

Like the Celtics the Pacers have been a good betting team at home (17-14-1 ATS) as well as on the road (18-12-2 ATS). While they did not cover in their last game at home they did in their previous 6 on their floor. At home this season the O/U record of the Pacers is 13-19 while on the road the O/U record is 21-10-1. The total has gone Under in 5 of their last 7 home games, but the 2 times it went Over has been in their last 2 games.

These 2 teams have split the 2 games facing each other this season with each winning at home. In the 2 games the road team covered the spread. The Celtics have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against the Pacers. In the 2 games this season the posted total has gone Over both times.

Some other angles to consider:

The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games facing the Pacers in Indiana.

The Celtics are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games facing the Pacers overall.

In the last 6 games between these 2 teams in Indiana the Under record of 4-1-1.

The Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games between these 2 teams.

This season the Pacers are 18-14 at home and the Celtics are 11-20 on the road.

SU and ATS Records

Boston Celtics: 28-36 SU / 37-26-1 ATS
Indiana Pacers: 30-34 SU / 35-26-3 ATS

Key Betting Trends

• BOS is 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
• BOS is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
• BOS has an Under record of 6-2 in their last 8 games.
• IND is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
• IND is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
• IND has an Under record of 7-2 in their last 9 games.

Sagarin Rankings

Boston Celtics: 88.32
Indiana Pacers: 89.64

Injury Report


(!)[C] 02/22/2015 – Jared Sullinger out for season ( Foot )
(!)[G] 03/13/2015 – Isaiah Thomas expected to miss Saturday vs. Indiana ( Back )


[C] 03/13/2015 – Roy Hibbert “?” Saturday vs. Boston ( Elbow )
(!)[F] 08/02/2014 – Paul George out indefinitely ( Leg )

Free NBA Prediction

Since February 1st the Pacers have the best record in the NBA (13-2) and they have moved into the 7th spot in the Eastern Conference. With their solid play as of late the Celtics are also back in the playoff race, as they are only 1 game back of the 8th place Charlotte Hornets.

The Pacers have won 3 straight home games facing the Celtics and they may get the W, but they will not cover the 8.5-point spread. Indiana has a solid defense ranking 3rd in the league in opponents’ points allowed and while they held the Bucks to 38.5% shooting in their last game they still gave up 103 points. Boston’s defense has struggled for much of the season, but in their 3-game winning streak they have only given up an average of 90 ppg. Staying away from the low total in this game with both games between these teams going Over on the season and taking the Celtics to cover the spread.

Take the CELTICS -8.5

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