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NBA Prediction –Atlanta Hawks vs. Brooklyn Nets Betting Pick

NBA Prediction –Atlanta Hawks vs. Brooklyn Nets Betting Pick. The 39-46 Brooklyn Nets host the 62-23 Atlanta Hawks in Game 4 of an Eastern Conference playoff series on4/27/2015 at Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY; Tipoff is at 7:00 PM ET.

Wagering Odds

Point Spread: Hawks -4
Over/Under Total Line: 195.5

In Game 3 the Hawks were in Brooklyn and lost to the Nets 91-83 and they failed to cover the spread as a 3.5-point favorite. The Hawks are up 2-1 in this series, but they have not covered the spread in any of the games and have failed to cover in their last 5 games overall. The total for Game 3 went Under and in the last 4 games for Atlanta the Under has been the winning bet every time. In their last 10 games the Hawks are 4-5-1 ATS and they have an O/U record of 4-6.

On the season the Hawks are 26-15 ATS at home and 24-15-2 ATS on the road. They did not cover in their last road game and in their last 3 road games they are 1-1-1. Atlanta has an O/U home record of 20-21 and an O/U road record of 22-19. In their last 2 games on the road the posted total has gone Under while the previous 2 games the total went Over.

The Nets won Game 3 and covered to get back in this series, but are still the betting underdog in Game 4 at home. Brooklyn has covered the spread in 4 straight games and in 6 of their last 10. The Nets have played 4 straight games where the Under has been the winning bet and in their last 10 games they have an O/U record of 3-7.

This season the Nets have not been a good betting team at home going 16-23-2 ATS at home while they are 23-18 ATS on the road. However, they did cover the spread in their last 2 home games including their last one. Brooklyn has an O/U home record of 20-21 and a O/U road record of 17-24. The Under has been the winning bet in 3 of their last 4 home games including their last 2.

While the Hawks covered the spread in 2 of the 3 regular season games between these 2 teams the Nets have covered in all 3 games in this series. In the 6 games these teams have faced each other this season the total has gone Under 4 times including every game in the series.

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Some other angles to consider:

In the last 5 games between these 2 teams in Brooklyn the total has gone Under 4 times.

The Hawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against the Nets in Brooklyn.

The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games between these 2 teams.

This season the Hawks are 25-17 on the road and the Nets are 20-22 at home.

SU and ATS Records

Atlanta Hawks: 62-23 SU / 50-33-2 ATS
Brooklyn Nets: 39-46 SU / 42-41-2 ATS

Key Betting Trends

• ATL is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• ATL is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
• ATL has an Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 games.
• BKL is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
• BKL is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• BKL has an Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 games.

Sagarin Rankings

Atlanta Hawks: 95.13
Brooklyn Nets: 88.15

Injury Report

HAWKS
[G] 04/10/2015 – Thabo Sefolosha out for season ( Fibula )

NETS
[G] 04/26/2015 – Deron Williams injured last game, “?” Monday vs. Atlanta ( Leg )
[G] 03/11/2015 – Sergey Karasev out for season ( Leg )

Free NBA Pick

The Nets kept it close in Game’s 1 and 2, which is why they covered the spread in both, and they won Game 3 not because they shot the ball well, they didn’t, but they held the Hawks to 35.6% shooting. DeMarre Carroll had a good Game 3 for Atlanta, but the 4 All Stars of Paul Millsap, Jeff Teague, Al Horford, and Kyle Korver were a combined 15/51 from the floor.

Nets PG Deron Williams is dealing with sever tendinitis and is a question mark for this game. He did not have a good Game 3 going 1/8 from the floor for only 3 points and while the Nets did not have a good shooting game Bojan Bogdanovic stepped up and scored 19 points, which is 10 above his season average. I think the Hawks will get back on track in this game and while the trends do not point to it I am going to take them to cover the spread as well.

Key Betting Trends

Take the HAWKS -4

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