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NBA Pick Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Odds

The 34-36 Milwaukee Bucks host the 32-37 Miami Heat in an Eastern Conference match up on 3/24/2015 at BMO Harris Bradley Center, Milwaukee, W; Tipoff is at 98:00 PM ET.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Heat -1.5
Over/Under Total Line: 193.5

In their last game the Heat suffered a bad 93-75 road loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder where they did not cover as a 4-point underdog. They had covered the spread in their previous 3 games and in their last 10 games they have covered the spread 6 times. The total for the Oklahoma City game was Under, which has been the winning bet in 4 of their last 5 games including their last 2. Overall, the Heat are coming off a loss and they are 6-4 in their last 10 games. The loss to the Thunder snapped Miami’s 3-game winning streak.

While the Heat have not been a good home betting team on the season (14-18-3 ATS) they have been a decent wager on the road (17-16-1 ATS). However, they have not covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 road games including their last 2. At home this season Miami has an O/U record of 18-17 and on the road the Under has definitely been the bet to make on the season with a road O/U record of 11-23. Their last 2 games on the road both went Under the posted total.

The Bucks are reeling losers of 6 straight games and in their last game they were at home and lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers and did not cover as 7.5-point underdogs. They have not covered the spread in their last 3 games overall and in their last 10 games they have an ATS record of 4-5-1. The total for the Cleveland game went Over, which has what has been the winning bet for their last 3 games. Overall, the Bucks have lost 8 of their last 10 games.

The Bucks have been a much better bet on the road this season (24-12-1 ATS) than at home (15-18 ATS). They have failed to cover the spread in their last 4 home games. On the season Milwaukee has a home O/U record of 14-19 and a road O/U record of 17-20. In their last 4 home games the Over has been the winning bet including the last 2.

This game is the 4th between these 2 teams this season and the Bucks have won the first 3. Not only have the Bucks won all 3 games, but they have covered in all 3 as well. In the 2nd game between the 2 on the season the game was in Milwaukee and the Bucks covered, which was the first time they did that in their last 4 home games against the Heat. However, in those 4 games the Heat had LeBron James in the lineup. In 2 of the 3 games between the 2 teams this season the posted total has gone Under.

Some other angles to consider:

In the last 13 games between these 2 teams the Under record is 9-2-2.

In the last 6 games between these 2 teams in Milwaukee the Under record is 5-0-1.

The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Bucks in Milwaukee.

This season the Bucks are 18-14 at home and the Heat are 15-19 on the road.

SU and ATS Records

Miami Heat: 32-37 SU / 31-34-4 ATS
Milwaukee Bucks: 34-36 SU / 39-30-1 ATS

Betting Trends

• MIA is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• MIA is 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss.
• MIA has an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.
• MIL is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• MIL is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
• MIL has an Over record of 13-3 in their last 16 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.

Sagarin Rankings

Miami Heat: 87.98
Milwaukee Bucks: 89.94

Injury Reports

HEAT

(!)[C] 02/22/2015 – Chris Bosh out for season ( Blood Clot )
[F] 12/15/2014 – Josh McRoberts out for season ( Knee )

BUCKS

[F] 10/25/2014 – Damien Inglis out for season ( Foot )
[F] 12/17/2014 – Jabari Parker out for season ( Ankle )
[G] 03/20/2015 – O.J. Mayo out indefinitely ( Hamstring )
[G] 03/20/2015 – Jared Dudley out indefinitely ( Back )

NBA Pick

This one is a tough call since the Bucks have lost 6 in a row and 13 of their last 16 overall and the Heat have lost 4 straight and 8 of their last 10 games on the road.

The Heat are the 2nd lowest scoring team on the road this season and they are coming off a game where they only scored 75 points and failed to shoot 40% from the field. The Bucks are banged up and struggling, but they will get back in the W column in this game facing a Miami offense that has struggled all season to score on the road.

Take the BUCKS +1.5

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