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NBA Pick Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Odds

The 37-33 Phoenix Suns host the 44-26 Dallas Mavericks in a Western Conference match up on 3/22/2015 at US Airways Center, Phoenix, AZ; Tipoff is at 9:00 PM ET.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Mavericks -3.5
Over/Under Total Line: 203

In their last game the Mavericks lost to the Memphis Grizzlies at home and they failed to cover the spread as a 3-point favorite. They have not covered the spread in their last 3 games and have only done so once in their last 8. The total for the game against the Grizzlies was Over and that has been the winning bet in their last 5 games. Before that the posted total had gone Under for Dallas in 11 straight games. Overall, the Mavs are coming off a loss and are 5-5 in their last 10 games.

While the Mavs have been an even bet on the road so far on the season (17-17 ATS) they have not been a good bet at home 14-20-2 ATS). However, Dallas has failed to cover the spread in their last 5 games away from the Big D. In their last 5 games on the road they have only faced 1 team with a losing record in the Lakers, who they beat by 7 points and did not cover the 7.5-point spread as the favorite. This season the Mavs have an O/U record of 13-21 on the road and while their last 5 games have gone Over every time all of those games were in Dallas. In their last 6 games on the road the total has gone Under every time.

The Suns are coming off an impressive 117-102 road win over the Houston Rockets where they covered the spread as the 7.5-point underdog. Phoenix has covered in their last 3 games and in 7 of their last 9. The total for the Rockets’ game went Over, which snapped the Suns streak of 7 straight games where the Under was the winning wager. Overall, the Suns have won 3 in a row and 6 of their last 10 games.

The Suns have been a decent bet at home this season at 18-17 ATS and they have covered the spread in their last 2 games in their house and in 3 of their last 4. While the Over has been the pick for Phoenix on the road this season (O/U 20-15) at home the Under has been the way to go (O/U 14-20-1). In their last 6 home games the posted total has gone Under every time.

This is the 3rd meeting of the season between these teams and the Suns have won both games with the last game in Phoenix. The Suns have covered in both of the games and the total has gone Over twice. Both of the games between the Suns and Mavs on the season were back in December.

Some other angles to consider:

The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Mavericks.

In the last 4 games between these 2 teams the total has gone Over 4 times.

The road teams is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games between these 2 teams.

This season the Suns are 20-15 at home and the Mavericks are 20-14 on the road.

SU and ATS Records

Dallas Mavericks: 44-26 SU / 31-37-2 ATS
Phoenix Suns: 37-33 SU / 37-31-2 ATS

Betting Trends

• DAL is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
• DAL is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• DAL has an Over record of 5-0 in their last 5 games.
• PHO is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• PHO is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• PHO has an Under record of 6-0 in their last home games.

Sagarin Rankings

Dallas Mavericks: 93.53
Phoenix Suns: 90.83

Injury Reports


[G] 03/21/2015 – J J Barea expected to miss Sunday vs. Phoenix ( Ankle )


[G] 03/21/2015 – Marcus Thornton doubtful Sunday vs. Dallas ( Toe )
(!)[G] 03/21/2015 – Brandon Knight “?” Sunday vs. Dallas ( Ankle )
[C] 03/21/2015 – Alex Len is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Houston ( Ankle )

NBA Pick

The Mavs had their 3-game winning streak snapped in their last game and they have been up and down in the last few weeks. They have lost 7 of their last 11 road games, which is one of the reasons I am taking the Suns in this one.

The Suns only rank 26th in the league in opponents’ points allowed, but they rank 4th in the league in scoring. In both games facing Dallas this season the total has gone Over, as the Suns have scored 118 and 124 points in those games respectively. Phoenix shot 50% from the floor and scored 117 points in their last game facing the Rockets and they will have another solid offensive outing tonight where they will cover at home.

Take the SUNS +3.5

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