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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide ATS Pick

Time: 3:30 PM EST Saturday November 15, 2014, CBS

A fantastic game with two contenders for the National Championship battling it out in at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday afternoon when the Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Alabama Crimson Tide.

The linesmaker opened this game with the Crimson Tide favored by 6.5 but since the opening Alabama money has driven the line up to 9.5 at most books. The total hit the board at 51.5 or 52 points and has held there.

Yards per point scoring favors the Bulldogs with a 13.1 mark compared to the Tide’s 14.0. Defensively the Bulldogs also hold the edge in YPP numbers with a 21.7 yards being required per point with the Crimson Tide at 19.8.

Against the spread Alabama has been a bankroll killing 2-6-1 while Mississippi State has been a marginally profitable 5-4.

In their last games Mississippi State beat UT Martin 45-16 and Alabama beat LSU 20-13 in OT.

This season Alabama is 5-0 at home and Mississippi State is 3-0 on the road.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Alabama -7
Over/Under Total Line: OFF
Moneyline: OFF

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Mississippi State: 9-0 SU 5-4 ATS
Alabama: 8-1 SU 3-6 ATS

Key Betting Trends
• MSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• MSU is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
• MSU has an Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
• BAMA is 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
• BAMA is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
• BAMA has an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Mississippi State: 91.29
Alabama: 98.84

Key Player Injuries

MSU
NONE

ALABAMA
[TE] 10/15/2014 – Kurt Freitag out indefinitely ( Legal problems )
[DB] 10/16/2014 – Ronnie Clark out for season ( Achilles )
[LB] 10/06/2014 – Denzel Devall out indefinitely ( Foot )
[RB] 10/04/2014 – Kenyan Drake out for season ( Leg )
[OL] 11/09/2014 – Alphonse Taylor “?” Saturday vs. Mississippi St ( Concussion )
(!)[RB] 11/09/2014 – T.J. Yeldon injured last game, “?” Saturday vs. Mississippi St ( Knee )

Next Game
Mississippi State vs. Vanderbilt
Alabama vs. Western Carolina

Free Point Spread Pick

This will easily be the best pass defense that Mississippi State’s QB Dak Preston has faced and there is nothing in his back numbers to suggest that he’ll have success against Alabama through the air. The Bulldogs running game can be slowed as proven by the Razorbacks who held them to just 128 yards on 3.7 per carry and will now face the No. 3 rushing defense. The line continues to climb with most books at 9.5 points now but ‘Bama has outscored opponents 45-11 in 5 home games with the lowest margin of victory 10 points in their opener to West Virginia.
Lean to Alabama 9.5

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