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MLB Free Pick: Milwaukee at St. Louis

Time: 8:15 PM EST Monday April 28, 2014 FSMW

Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Missouri

The St. Louis Cardinals host the Milwaukee Brewers in a NL Central match up.

In their last games: The Brewers lost to the Chicago Cubs 4-0 and the Cardinals beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 7-0.

In their loss to the Cubs the Brewers’ offense was stymied, as they only had 3 hits in the game.

In their win over the Pirates Adam Wainwright became the first 5-game winner in the Majors and Jhonny Peralta hit 2 HR.

The Cardinals have taken 2 of 3 from the Brewers this season, but Milwaukee won the most recent match up.

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Here are some additional handicapping angles to ponder:

The Cardinals’ offense has struggled this season only ranking 27th in the Majors in runs scored.

The Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10 home games facing the Brewers.

The Brewers are 1-5 in Yovani Gallardo’s last 6 road starts against the Cardinals.

The Cardinals are 5-0 in Michael Wacha’s last 5 home starts.

Pitching Match Up
Milwaukee Brewers: Yovani Gallardo (2-0, 1.42 ERA)
St. Louis Cardinals: Michael Wacha (2-2, 2.10 ERA)

Betting Odds

Money Line: Brewers +150 / Cardinals -160
Run Line: St. Louis -1.5 +140
Total Line: 7 Under(-125)

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Milwaukee Brewers: 18-7 SU / O/U 8-17 / Run Line W/L 15-10
St. Louis Cardinals: 14-12 SU / O/U 8-15 / Run Line W/L 13-13

Key Betting Trends
• MIL is 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
• MIL is 6-2 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
• MIL has an Over record of 6-1 in their last 7 road games.
• STL is 44-17 in their last 61 home games.
• STL is 38-16 in their last 54 games as a home favorite.
• STL has an Under record of 11-1-2 in their last 14 games.

Key Player Injuries

Ryan Braun OF Out Apr 26 ribs Day-to-day
Jean Segura SS Out Apr 26 face Day-to-day
Martin Maldonado C Suspended Apr 22 –
Logan Schafer OF D.L. Apr 20 hamstring Early April
Tom Gorzelanny RP D.L. Mar 30 shoulder May

Joe Kelly SP D.L. Apr 17 hamstring Early May?
Jaime Garcia SP D.L. Mar 30 shoulder May?
Jason Motte RP D.L. Mar 30 elbow Early May

Free Pick:

On the season both starters have pitched well with a small edge going to Yovani Gollardo who has registered a quality start in all 5 outings this season. What Gollardo hasn’t received is run support for a total of 12 runs scored in his 5 starts. It’s not like the Brewers can’t hit. They’re averaging 4.04 runs per game which puts them in the middle of the pack. So, you have to expect the run support numbers to balance out soon. That being said I’m not expecting a huge offensive output against Cardinals’ starter Michael Wacha who has yet to allow more than 3 runs in a start. He did last only 4 innings on the road in New York versus the Mets in his latest and did walk 5, so if the Milwaukee hitters are patient they may be able to shorten his game. St. Louis had scored 3 or fewer runs in 7 straight, before putting 7 on the board yesterday and shouldn’t be counted on to get many against Gollardo and the rest of the Milwaukee pitching staff. The under looks tempting, but I feel the value is on the visitor.
Take Milwaukee +150.

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