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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Total Pick

Time: 7:10 PM EST Friday July 4, 2014 FSOH

Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio

The Cincinnati Reds host the Milwaukee Brewers in a National League match up.

In their last games: The Brewers lost to the Toronto Blue Jays 7-4 and the Reds lost to the San Diego Padres 3-0.

The Brewers bullpen gave up a walk off HR to the Blue Jays in the 7-4 loss.

In their loss to the Padres the Cincy offense was blanked and only had 3 hits.

The Reds have won 5 of 7 games facing the Brewers this season.

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Here are some additional handicapping angles to ponder:

The Reds have won 4 of their last 5 games facing the Reds.

The Brewers are 5-1 in Kyle Lohse’s last 6 road starts.

The Reds are 4-1 in Alfredo Simon’s last 5 home starts.

Pitching Match Up
Milwaukee: Kyle Lohse (9-2, 3.08 ERA)
Cincinnati: Alfredo Simon (10-3, 2.81 ERA)

Betting Odds

Money Line: Brewers +101 / Reds -111
Run Line: Cincinnati -1.5 +175
Total Line: 7.5 Under -115

Straight up, Over/Under and Runline Records
Milwaukee Brewers: 51-35 SU / O/U 45-37 / Run Line W/L 43-43
Cincinnati Reds: 43-41 SU / O/U 38-43 / Run Line W/L 44-30

Key Betting Trends
• MIL is 8-3 in their last 11 road games.
• MIL is 12-4 in their last 16 games following a loss.
• MIL has an Over record of 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games.
• CINCY is 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
• CINCY is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
• CINCY has an Under record of 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Key Player Injuries

BREWERS
Khris Davis OF Out Jul 1 shoulder Day-to-day
Tyler Thornburg RP D.L. Jun 7 elbow Out indefinitely
Jim Henderson RP D.L. May 2 shoulder Out indefinitely

REDS
Sean Marshall RP D.L. Jun 14 shoulder 2015
Trevor Bell RP D.L. Apr 8 elbow Out indefinitely
Jack Hannahan 3B D.L. Mar 30 shoulder Out indefinitely

Total Pick:

Cincinnati starter Alfredo Simon has been razor sharp this season with 16 quality starts in 18 appearances. The Reds have won 6 in a row when Simons take the mound and are 4-1 in his last 5 starts at home. Simons faced Milwaukee back on May 4 of this year going 7 innings giving up 5 hits and 3 earned runs. The Brewers counter with Kyle Lohse who has also has had a solid season to date with a 9-2 record and 3.08 ERA. Lohse has pitched 5 consecutive QS against the Reds dating back to 2013, only giving up 8 earned runs in 35 innings in those 5 outings. Both of these clubs are on a 3 game winless streak. I feel with the two quality hurlers on the mound tonight that runs will be tough to come by, so I’ll make a play on the total here. Take the Under 7.5.

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