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Michigan State Spartans vs. Oregon Ducks Point Spread Prediction

Opening Line: Oregon -12
Over/Under: 58

Time: 6:30 PM EST Saturday September 6, 2014 on FOX

There are major BCS implications involved in this game where the 3r ranked Oregon Ducks host the 7th ranked Michigan State Spartans. This game features Oregon and their high-octane offense led by Heisman candidate QB Marcus Mariota facing Michigan State and their solid defense.

Michigan State led FBS in total defense last season and even though they lost 6 starters on that side of the ball they still are loaded led by the duo of DE Shilique Calhoun and LB Taiwan Jones.

Michigan State is the 12-point betting underdog in this game and they have not been that much of an underdog since the 2008 season.

In their last games Oregon beat South Dakota 62-13 and Michigan State beat Jacksonville State 45-7.

This season Oregon is 1-0 at home and Michigan State is 0-0 on the road.

Oregon is 0-1-0 ATS with an Over/Under record of 1-0 and Michigan State is 1-0 ATS with an Over/Under record of 1-0.

These teams have not met since the 1999 season.

To say that the MSU defense is in for a test is an understatement, as Oregon racked up 673 yards (380 passing 293 rushing) in their win over North Dakota. Mariota has a slew of weapons and the MSU secondary and, especially, pass rush must play well in this game. They cannot give Mariota time in the pocket. Last week the Ducks QB was 14/20 for 267 yards and 3 TD and 0 INT.

The MSU defense stuffed the run last week facing Jacksonville State, but gave up 222 passing yards.

The Ducks also have a great rushing attack led by the duo of Byron Marshall and Royce Freeman. The Spartans really have to key on Marshall, who is a duel threat back that not only had 90 yards rushing on only 8 carries last week, but also had 8 receptions for 138 yards.

While MSU is known for their defense they also have a good offense led by QB Connor Cook, who was 12/13 for 285 yards with 3 TD and 0 INT before leaving the game against Jacksonville State. WR Tony Lippett had 4 catches for 167 yards in the game and the Spartans also rushed for 211 yards.

In the win over South Dakota Oregon did not have a great game on defense, which is a concern heading into this HUGE game, giving up 198 passing yards and 172 rushing yards.

Betting Trends

Michigan State is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and they have an Under record of 6-2 in their last 8 road games.

Oregon is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall, and they have an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.

Point Spread Prediction

The Ducks were a money eater last season covering just 5 of their last 6 regular season games. They amassed a combined 673 yards on the terribly overmatched South Dakota Coyotes defense in their opener and keep in min d that they were up 41-13 and went through the motions for most of the second half. They catch the Spartans with only 5 returning starters on defense and one game under the belt. They’ll probably need a few games to get sorted out and I’d be surprised if they don’t find the speed of the Ducks overwhelming. The line may appear high to some but remember this Oregon team does not take their foot off of the pedal beating their first by 21 or greater points.

Take the Oregon Ducks -12

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