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NCAA Free Point Spread Pick: Memphis Tigers vs. Virginia Cavaliers

Time: 8:40 PM EST Sunday March 23, 2014, TNT

Location: PNC Arena, Raleigh, North Carolina

In a 3rd round match up in the East Region the 8th seed Memphis Tigers face the top seed Virginia Cavaliers.

In their last games: Memphis beat George Washington 71-66 and Virginia beat Coastal Carolina 70-59.

Memphis did not play great defense in their win over George Washington, but Michael Dixon Jr. came off the bench to score 19 points and as a team the Tigers shot 49.1% from the floor.

Virginia was down to Coastal Carolina 5-point at halftime, but outscored the Chanticleers by 16 points in the 2nd half. For the game the Cavaliers shot the ball well with a FG% of 52.5%.

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Here are some additional handicapping angles to ponder:

Virginia is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.

Virginia is riding a 4-game winning streak.

Virginia has the nation’s best defense only giving up an average of 55.3 points per game.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Virginia -5.5
Total Line: 129
Money Line: Tigers +200 / Cavaliers -240

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Memphis Tigers: 24-9 SU 17-13 ATS
Virginia Cavaliers: 29-6 SU 18-11-2 ATS

Key Betting Trends
• MEM is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• MEM is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
• MEM has an Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 games.
• VIRG is 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
• VIRG is 14-3-2 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• VIRG has an Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 non-conference games.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Memphis Tigers: 83.83
Virginia Cavaliers: 90.32

Key Player Injuries

[F] 03/20/2014 – Dominic Woodson out indefinitely ( Disciplinary )

No injuries to report at this time.

Point Spread Pick:

The number 26.4 is significant here. That’s the percentage of shots Memphis sunk from the field in their “no show” versus UConn two games ago. Admittedly the Huskies defense is very good, but on paper the Cavaliers defense is even better allowing the 8th lowest opponent FG percentage and having the No. 1 scoring defense in the nation. Virginia has one overtime loss in their last 18 games and are a bankroll building 12-4-2 ATS over that stretch.
Take the Virginia Cavaliers -5.5.

Why waste money? Bet this game at and lay -105 instead of -110!

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