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Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans Total Selection

Time: 8:30 PM EST Thursday November 14, 2013, ESPN / WatchESPN

The Tennessee Titans host the Indianapolis Colts in a AFC South divisional match up.

In their last games Indianapolis got pounded by the St Louis Rams 38-8 in front of their hometown fans. The Tennessee Titans also lost a shocker 29-27 to Jacksonville as a 11.5 point favorite at home, handing the Jaguars their first win of the season.

The Colts won their last meeting 27-23 on Dec 9/12 in Indianapolis as a 3.5 point favorite. Indy has won the last 3 games and 8 out of last 10.

The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games between these 2 teams.

Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 visits to Nashville Tennessee.

These 2 teams have gone under the posted total in 13 of their last 16 times they’ve met. They’ve also gone under in 6 out of the last 8 times they’ve played each other in Tennessee.

This season Tennessee is 2-3 at home and Indianapolis is 3-1 on the road.

Betting Odds at 5Dimes
Point Spread: Indianapolis -2.5
Over/Under Total Line: 42.5
Moneyline: Colts -138 / Titans +118

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Indianapolis Colts: 6-3 SU 5-4 ATS
Tennessee Titans: 4-5 SU 5-3-1 ATS

Key Betting Trends
• INDY is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• INDY is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• INDY is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.
• TENN is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
• TENN is 3-10-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• TENN is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC South.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Indianapolis Colts: 21.59
Tennessee Titans: 18.31

Key Player Injuries

COLTS
[NT] 11/13/2013 – Josh Chapman Prob Thursday (Knee)
[LB] 11/11/2013 – Cam Johnson Ques Thursday (Knee)
[RB] 11/13/2013 – Josh Gordy Doub Thursday (Groin)
[S] 11/13/2013 – Delano Howell Doub Thursday (Neck)
[CB] 11/13/2013 – Greg Toler Out Thursday (Groin)
[WR] 10/22/2013 – Reggie Wayne I-R (Knee)
[RB] 10/8/2013 – Ahmad Bradshaw I-R (Neck)
[TE] 10/7/2013 – Dwayne Allen I-R (Hip)
[G] 9/17/2013 – Donald Thomas I-R (Quadricep)
[RB] 9/13/2013 – Vick Ballard I-R (Knee)

TITANS
[LB] 11/11/2013 – Moise Fokou Ques Thursday (Knee)
[T] 11/11/2013 – David Stewart Ques Thursday (Shoulder)
[DB] 11/11/2013 – Tommie Campbell Ques Thursday (Shoulder)
[WR] 11/13/2013 – Damian Williams Out Thursday (Quadricep)
[WR] 11/12/2013 – Kevin Walter Out for the season (Back)
[QB] 11/12/2013 – Jake Locker I-R (Foot)
[G] 10/30/2013 – Robert Turner I-R (Shoulder)

Next Game
Indianapolis @ Arizona
Tennessee @ Oakland

Our Selection : Motivation will not be an issue for the Titans after losing at home to winless divisional foe Jacksonville last week. They do lose Jake Locker and it is certainly a drop off to Ryan Fitzpatrick, but he has had time with the starters and performed adequately.
Tennessee has struggled with the running game all season but do catch a Colts team whose run unit has been porous with 4 of their last 5 opponents rushing for 140 or greater yards.
The Colts looked atrocious in losing to the rams last Sunday and while they did get the win in Houston in Week 9 they were outplayed and were fortunate to come out with a win.
Indianapolis did get 388 yards through the air last week, but many of those yards came when the game victor was not in doubt. Their rushing game continues to struggle with 3 of their last 4 games well under 100 yards with a combined total of 161. They will be facing the Titan’s 21st ranked run defense, but the numbers are skewed with games against 4 of the top 12 rushing offenses.
Of course Fitzpatrick can be a turnover machine, but if he can keep that in check we feel that points will come at a premium keeping this game well under the posted total line.
Take the UNDER 42.5 at 5Dimes and get reduced juice on every play.

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