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Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots ATS Pick

Time: 8:15 PM EST January 11, 2014, FOX

Location: Gillette Stadium

In their latest games the Indianapolis Colts trailed by 28 points early in the second half before Andrew Luck and the Colts mounted their comeback. The Colts scored 35 points in the second half on their way to a a stunning 45-44 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs to kickoff Wildcard weekend.

The New England Patriots had a bye week.

These two teams last played November 18/2012 here at Gillette Stadium were Tom Brady and the Patriots pounded the Colts 59-24.

Last Saturday Andrew Luck passed for 443 yards with 4 TD’s a career best but had 3 interceptions, 2 of them gave the Chiefs short fields resulting in 14 points.

T.Y. Hilton also had a career day with 13 catches for 224 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Big concern for the Colts this week is what happened to their defense that only gave up 20 points combined in their last 3 regular season games. The Colts were lit up for 363 through the air and 150 rushing yards to a Chiefs team that was without their main weapon Jamaal Charles for most of the game.

On the stats front both of these teams rank in the top 14 in scoring, The Patriots averaged 27.8 PPG and the Colts 24.4 points per game.

Defensively both these teams are in the top 10 in the league in scoring defense. Indianapolis 9th with 21.0 points allowed per game and New England right behind in 10th place allowing 21.1 PPG.

These two teams have gone over the posted total in 4 of their last 5 games in New England.

Indianapolis is 6-2-1 against the spread in their last 9 meetings and is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Gillette Stadium.

The underdog has a record of 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 times these 2 teams have met.

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Betting Odds

Point Spread: New England -7
Over/Under Total Line: 51
Moneyline: Colts +265 / Patriots -325

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Indianapolis Colts: 12-5 SU 11-6 ATS
New England Patriots: 12-4 SU 8-8 ATS

Key Betting Trends

  • IND is 9-0 ATS in last 9 games after allowing 30+ points in their previous game.
  • IND is 23-11-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • IND is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • NE is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
  • NE is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • NE is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 playoff home games.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Indianapolis Colts: 25.71
New England Patriots: 25.19

Key Player Injuries

INDIANAPOLIS

[LB] 1/5/2014 – Daniel Adongo Ques Saturday (Hamstring)
[G] 1/5/2014 – Joe Reitz Ques Saturday (Concussion)
[S] 1/5/2014 – LaRon Landry Ques Saturday (Concussion)
[DT] 12/24/2013 – Montori Hughes Out for the season (Knee)
[DE] 1/6/2014 – Fili Moala I-R (Knee)
[CB] 1/6/2014 – Greg Toler I-R (Groin)
[LB] 12/18/2013 – Pat Angerer I-R (Knee)
[RB] 12/10/2013 – Chris Rainey I-R (Leg)
[S] 11/27/2013 – Delano Howell I-R (Foot)
[WR] 10/22/2013 – Reggie Wayne I-R (Knee)
[RB] 10/8/2013 – Ahmad Bradshaw I-R (Neck)
[TE] 10/7/2013 – Dwayne Allen I-R (Hip)
[G] 9/17/2013 – Donald Thomas I-R (Quadricep)
[RB] 9/13/2013 – Vick Ballard I-R (Knee)

PATRIOTS
[DB] 1/5/2013 – Devin McCourty Prob Saturday (Concussion)
[CB] 1/5/2013 – Alfonzo Dennard Ques Saturday (Knee)
[WR] 1/5/2013 – Aaron Dobson Ques Saturday (Foot)
[G] 1/5/2013 – Logan Mankins Ques Saturday (Ankle)
[LB] 1/6/2013 – Brandon Spikes I-R (Knee)
[WR] 1/4/2013 – Josh Boyce I-R (Foot)
[TE] 12/9/2013 – Rob Gronkowski I-R (Knee)
[DL] 11/3/2013 – Tommy Kelly I-R (Knee)
[T] 10/29/2013 – Sebastian Volimer I-R (Leg)
[LB] 10/16/2013 – Jerod Mayo I-R (Pectoral)
[DL] 10/3/2013 – Vince Wilfork I-R (Foot)

Point Spread Betting Pick

The Colts came up with the unlikely win last week in their Wildcard game against the Chiefs. Kansas City opened a 28 point lead in the 3rd quarter but injuries were their undoing with Chiefs dropping like flies throughout the game. Indianapolis put up 45 points and 536 yards against a beaten up defense, but their defense wasn’t anything to be proud of allowing 44 points and 513 yards. That can’t have the defense beaming with confidence heading into New England. Alex Smith hit just under 75% of his passes and the Chiefs ran for over 150 yards with their star RB out after his 3rd carry. The rushing yards allowed was the 4th time that the Colts in their last 6 games had allowed 150 or greater yards on the ground. That should be a red light for bettors that were looking to back Indianapolis. The Patriots finished 9th in the league with 129.1 yards rushing per game. It’s not like you can stack the box against Brady. Tom is just too good a passer to have one or more safety committing to run support. The key here may be New England’s run defense that finished 29th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. We believe that the Colts don’t have the blocking or the horses to exploit that weakness. We also believe that the Pats’ secondary can play man to man and limit the damage that T.Y. Hilton can do in the passing game.

We’re going to side with the better coached team and one with the better QB and run game.

Take the New England Patriots -7

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