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Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Free Total Pick

Opening Line: Colts -2.5
Over/Under: 46

Time: 8:25 PM EST Thursday October 9, 2014 on CBS / NFL

Indianapolis Colts (3-2) vs. Houston Texans (3-2)

These are 2 teams heading in different directions and the winner of this Thursday night match up will take sole possession of first place in the AFC South. The Colts have won 3 straight after losing their first 2 games while the Texans have lost 2 of their last 3 games after a 2-0 start.

The big match up in this game will be J.J. Watt and the Houston pass defense against Andrew Luck and the Colts’ top rated passing offense. Luck leads the NFL in passing yards and he will be facing a Houston pass defense that ranks 21st in the league.

In their last games the Colts beat the Baltimore Ravens 20-13 and the Texans lost to the Dallas Cowboys 20-17 in OT.

The Colts are 4-1 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 4-1 and the Texans are 4-1 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 2-3.

On the season the Texans are 2-0 at home and the Colts are 1-1 on the road.

While Luck has the most passing yards in the league and passed for over 300 yards in the win over the Ravens he was picked off 2 times and only had 1 TD. He was only sacked 1 time in the game and his offensive line is key keeping Watt and the Texans out of the backfield.

The Colts had a decent rushing game against Baltimore and RB’s Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson played well. The Houston defense came up with 3 turnovers in the loss to Dallas, which is why the game was close, as their defense gave up 316 passing yards and 140 rushing yards. Their run defense has struggled all season and only ranks 25th in the league.

The Colts’ defense ranks in the middle of the pack both against the run and the pass, but their D came up big in the Ravens game holding them to under 200 passing yards and under 100 rushing yards.

Ryan Fitzpatrick remains the starter for Houston, but he only had 154 yards in the loss to the Cowboys. He has thrown 6 picks with only 2 TD in his last 3 games.

The one player the Colts have to contain is RB Adrian Foster, who had a big game facing Dallas with 157 rushing yards and he scored both of the Texans TD’s.

Betting Trends

The Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and they have an Over record of 7-1 in their last 8 road games.

The Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games, and they have an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 home games.

The Colts are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games against the Texans.

In the last 7 games between these 2 division rivals the total has gone Under 6 times.

Free Over/Under Pick

The Colts scoring offense was underproductive last week against Baltimore putting up 20 points while amassing 422 total offensive yards. The opposite happened for the Texans allowing 456 but just 20 points to the Cowboys. We believe that both yards per point numbers will not be the norm this week in Houston. Look for the scoring of both teams to come close to their seasonal averages and this game to easily go over the posted total.

Take the Over 46

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