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Idaho Potato Bowl Betting Preview – Total Pick

Buffalo Bulls vs. San Diego State Aztecs

Time: 5:30 PM EST Saturday December 21, 2013, ESPN / Watch ESPN

The San Diego State Aztecs will face the Buffalo Bulls in this year’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl at Bronco Stadium in Boise, Idaho.

The Aztecs had their 4-game winning streak snapped with a 45-19 loss on the road to UNLV in their season finale. Finishing at 7-5 was a solid turnaround for SDSU, who lost their first 3 games of the season.

The Bulls lost their final season game 24-7 to the Bowling Green Falcons at home as a 3.5 underdog. Buffalo lost 2 of their last 3 games of the season after winning 7 in a row after Baylor beat them 70-13 in Week 2.

The key match up in this game may be SDSU and their 35th ranked passing offense vs. Buffalo and their 27th ranked defense.

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SDSU ranks 22nd in the nation in run defense and they will be facing Buffalo RB Branden Oliver, who rushed for 1,421 yards with 15 TD and had a 7-game streak this season rushing for over 100 yards.

The Bulls rank 38th in the nation in pass defense and the 2 Aztecs leading WR’s in Ezell Ruffin (1,061 yards 3 TD) and Colin Lockett (696 yards 5 TD) each averaged over 14 yards per catch this season.

Betting Odds at
Point Spread: Pick – Even
Over/Under Total Line: 53

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Buffalo Bulls: 8-4 SU 8-4 ATS
San Diego State Aztecs: 7-5 SU 6-6 ATS

Key Betting Trends
• BUFF is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
• BUFF is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.
• BUFF has an Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 non-conference games.
• SDSU is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
• SDSU is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
• SDSU has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games overall.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Buffalo Bulls: 70.53
San Diego State Aztecs: 62.81

Key Player Injuries

AZTECS
[TE] 12/15/2013 – Adam Roberts probable Saturday (Foot)
[OL] 12/15/2013 – Bryce Quigley probable Saturday (Foot)
[RB] 12/15/2013 – Dwayne Garrett probable Saturday (Concussion)
[DB] 12/15/2013 – Nat Berhe probable Saturday (Shoulder)
[OL] 12/15/2013 – Zach Dilley probable Saturday (Knee)
[DL] 12/15/2013 – Teddy Queen questionable Saturday (Neck)
[OL] 12/15/2013 – Arthur Flores questionable Saturday (Illness)
[DB] 12/15/2013 – Tony Bell questionable Saturday (Illness)
[DB] 12/15/2013 – Marcus Andrews doubtful Saturday (Hand)
[LB] 12/10/2013 – Scott Graves out for season (Bicep)
[LB] 12/10/2013 – Jake Fely out for season (Foot)
[LB] 12/8/2013 – Blake Rodgers out indefinitely (Heart)
[OL] 12/8/2013 – Paul Rodriguez out indefinitely (Heart)
[OL] 12/8/2013 – Sam Meredith out indefinitely (Shoulder)
[S] 11/06/2013 – Gabe Lemon out indefinitely (Neck)
[DB] 10/09/2013 – Billy Vaughn Jr. out for season (Shoulder)
[DL] 10/02/2013 – Dan Kottman out for season (Foot)

BULLS
{QB} 12/15/2013 – Alex Zordich Questionable Saturday (Concussion)
[OL] 12/10/2013 – Jason Carlson out for season (Leg)
[LB] 12/26/2013 – Nick Gilbo out for season (Undisclosed)
[WR] 9/26/2013 – Marcus McGill out for season (Hand)
[FB] 9/4/2013 – Boomer Brock out for season (Knee)
[RB] 9/26/2013 – Jordon Johnson out for season (Elbow)

Over/Under Pick :The Bulls defense showed some cracks late in the season with the Rockets putting up 51 in a game which Buffalo looked like they were sleep walking through the first half. Overall the Bulls allowed 24 or fewer in 9 of their 12 games and 14 or fewer in 6 games. Only Ohio State, Baylor and the aforementioned Toledo scored greater than 24 points on this defense. The Aztecs are certainly not in that league ranking 70th in scoring offense with 28.2 points per game.
San Diego State does rank a very poor 96th in the nation in scoring defense allowing 32.3 points per game, but are on the improve. They held the very strong offenses of Ohio State, Oregon State, Fresno State and Boise State under their season average and we believe the Bulls offense to not be of the same caliber of any of that group.
Look for points to come at a premium in the Idaho Potato Bowl.
Take the UNDER 53 at and get reduced juice on every play.

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