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Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions – Point Spread Pick

Time: 12:30 PM EST Thursday November 28, 2013, ESPN

The Detroit Lions host the Green Bay Packers in a NFC North divisional match up.

In their last games the Detroit lost 24-21 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home as a 9 point favorite. The Green Bay Packers were involved in this seasons 1st OT tie 26-26 with the Minnesota Vikings. The Packers trailed by 16 points in the 4th but tied it up with 46 seconds left on Mason Crosby’s 27 yard field goal.

The Green Bay Packers beat Detroit 22-9 at home in week 5 as a 10 point favorite. The Packers have won 9 of their last 10 meetings.

The Packers have a 5-0 record ATS in the last 5 times they’ve met and are also 6-1 against the number in the last 7 visits to the motor city.

These 2 teams have gone under the posted total in 5 out of the last 6 meetings and also gone under in all 4 of the last 4 times they played in Detroit.

The favorite has a 4-1 ATS record in the last 5 games between these 2 teams.

This season Detroit is 3-2 at home and Green Bay is 2-3 on the road.

Betting Odds at 5Dimes
Point Spread: Detroit -6
Over/Under Total Line: 50
Moneyline: Packers +215 / Lions -255

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Green Bay Packers: 5-5-1 SU 4-7 ATS
Detroit Lions: 6-5 SU 5-6 ATS

Key Betting Trends

• GB is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
• GB is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• GB is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.
• DET is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC North.
• DET is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• DET is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Thursday games.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Green Bay Packers: 22.59
Detroit Lions: 21.71

Key Player Injuries

Green Bay
[T] 11/25/2013 – Don Barclay Ques Thursday (Knee)
[LB] 11/25/2013 – Nick Perry Ques Thursday (Foot)
[CB] 11/25/2013 – Sam Shields Ques Thursday (Undisclosed)
[DT] 11/25/2013 – Johnny Jolly Ques Thursday (Groin)
[QB] 11/25/2013 – Aaron Rodgers Doub Thursday (Collarbone)
[CB] 11/24/2013 – Casey Hayward I-R (Hamstring)
[CB] 11/24/2013 – James Nixon I-R (Knee)
[WR] 11/24/2013 – Sederrik Cunningham I-R (Wrist)
[QB] 11/13/2013 – Seneca Wallace I-R (Groin)
[TE] 11/5/2013 – Jermichael Finley I-R (Neck)
[LB] 11/5/2013 – Sam Barrington I-R (Hamstring)
[G] 10/15/2013 – Greg Van Roten I-R (Foot)
[WR] 10/15/2013 – Randall Cobb Elig Week 15 (Knee)
[T] 10/7/2013 – Bryan Bulaga I-R (Knee)
[LB] 10/7/2013 – Rob Francois I-R (Achilles)

Detroit
[CB] 11/25/2013 – Chris Houston Ques Thursday (Hamstring)
[RB] 11/19/2013 – Montell Owens I-R (Knee)
[WR] 10/31/2013 – Ryan Broyles I-R (Achilles)
[DE] 9/23/2013 – Jason Jones I-R (Knee)

Next Game on Deck
Atlanta @ Green Bay
Detroit @ Philadelphia

ATS Game Pick : Sure Matt Flynn provided a spark for the Packers and certainly was a big up grade over game starter Scott Tolzien. What you have to decide when handicapping this Thanksgiving game is whether the return to Lambeau Field is all Flynn needed or was it the competition? We’re going to side with the latter. The Vikings pass defense is atrocious ranking 29th in the league in yards allowed per game. Not only that. Flynn has been cut from two teams in about a month and sure one GM can be wrong but two?
Green Bay is going to need to run the ball to have any hope in this game. They ran all over the Lions earlier in this season with 180 yards on 33 carries, but they did have the threat of Aaron Rodgers to keep them from stacking the box. That won’t be the case this Thursday and it appears that Detroit has solidified their run defense holding their last 5 opponents to under 100 yards.
The Packers held the Lions to 286 yards of offense in their Week 5 22-9 victory. That was the only time that the Detroit didn’t gain over 300 yards and the only game that they haven’t reached 21 or more points in a game. Keep in mind that the Lions were without both of their top receivers with Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson. We don’t expect Green Bay to have anywhere near the success on the scoreboard this week.
Take the Detroit Lions -6 at 5Dimes and get reduced juice on every play.

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