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Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers Free Pick

Opening Line: Packers -8
Over/Under: 48.5

Time: 4:25 PM EST Sunday October 4, 2015 on FOX

While it is not hard to believe that the Packers are 3-0 it is a little surprising that the 49ers are 1-2. Oh, how the mighty have fallen, as San Francisco, which has been one of the premier teams for the last few seasons, is in trouble and they are big betting favorites at home this Sunday.

Not only did the 49ers have a tough off-season with player retirements, free agency losses, and the loss of head coach Jim Harbaugh, but also they were crushed last Sunday and LB NaVorro Bowman and TE Vernon Davis were injured in that game and are question marks for this game.

To say the Packers have looked impressive would be an understatement and they are coming off a game where the defense was solid and Aaron Rodgers passed for over 370 yards with 5 TD and 0 INT.

In their last games the Packers beat the Kansas City Chiefs 38-28 and the 49ers lost to the Arizona Cardinals 47-7.

On the season the Packers are 3-0 ATS with an O/U record of 2-1 and the 49ers are 1-2 ATS with an O/U record of 2-1.

The 49ers are 1-0 at home on the season and the Packers are 1-0 on the road.

The 49ers have lost 2 in a row, but at least both of those games were on the road. In the embarrassing loss to the Cardinals the defense was shredded and QB Colin Kaepernick was a woeful 9/19 for 67 yards with 0 TD and he was picked off 4 times. One bright spot for the 49ers has been the play of RB Carols Hyde and he leads a rushing offense that ranks 2nd in the league.

The Green Bay defense did give up 28 points in the loss to the Chiefs, but 14 came late in the game. They stuffed the run, but gave up 251 passing yards. Still, before last game their run defense was the issue and they will get a heavy dose of Hyde in this game.

Even with the loss of Jordy Nelson Aaron Rodgers has a solid WR corps and in the easy win over Kansas City Randall Cobb caught 3 TD. Eddie Lacy only rushed for 46 yards, but averaged 4.6 yards per carry against the Chiefs.

Rodgers makes big players and he will be facing a 49ers’ pass defense that is giving up an average of 10 pass yards per attempt and overall ranks 27th in the league. Their run defense ranks 16th in the league,

In their last 2 games the 49ers been outscored by a combined 90-25.

The Packers have not beaten the 49ers since the 2010 season.


Betting Trends

The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 3-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, and in their last 20 road games the Over record is 14-6.

The 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games, e 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall, and in their last 10 games the Under record of 7-3.

The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 games between these 2 teams.

In the last 7 games between these 2 teams the Over record is 6-1.

Free NFL Pick

Do the 49ers have any chance here? We think against the spread they do. After a ridiculous schedule that had them playing on a short week in Pittsburgh followed by a game against the razor sharp Cardinals this looks like an easier spot for them. That’s not to say that we are knocking the Packers. We’re not. We just feel that that the 49ers play substantial better at home and we don’t expect their QB to be tossing pick 6’s and INTs all game. Look for the Packers to be more concerned with returning home healthy with a W than running up the score.


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