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Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos Free Pick and Betting Odds

The 6-0 Green Bay Packers head into the 6-0 Denver Broncos on Sunday Nov 1, 2015 for this week eight NFL match-up on the grass of Authority Field in Denver. Kick-off time is scheduled for 8:30PM ET.

Betting Odds
Point Spread: Packers -3
Total Line: 45.5

Green Bay is coming off of their bye week. Their last game, a 27-20 home victory over the Chargers, was their closest game of the season. The offense is playing at a good level as the loss of several wideouts has hampered QB Aaron Rodgers and kept the unit from playing at its usual high level. They rank 3rd in rushing and that is helping to alleviate some pressure off of Rodgers (15-2 TD/INT) to win games on his own. The defense is holding their end up as they are allowing an average of 17 points and have a NFC-leading 23 sacks.

Denver is also coming off of their bye week. For the Broncos, most of their wins have been close (5 by 7 points or less). QB Peyton Manning is having the worst season of his career (7-10 TD/INT) but has made plays in crunch time to get some wins. They are averaging only 102 yards on the ground as the offense has scored 24 points or less in four games. On the flip side, the defense has played better than expected. They are allowing 17 points per game, less than 90 yards rushing per game and have tallied a league-leading 26 sacks.

Green Bay at Denver Betting Trends

– Green Bay is 20-10 ATS following a week of rest.
– The Packers are 9-0 ATS vs. an opponent coming off a week of rest and a SU win.
– Denver is 21-7 ATS following a week of rest.
– The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.

Injury Report

10/28/15 LB Demarcus Ware Back probable Sunday vs. Green Bay
10/28/15 WR Emmanuel Sanders Shoulder probable Sunday vs. Green Bay
10/25/15 T Ty Sambrailo Shoulder “?” Sunday vs. Green Bay
10/18/15 LB Shane Ray Knee out indefinitely
09/04/15 DT Marvin Austin Groin IR
05/29/15 OT Ryan Clady Knee IR

Green Bay
10/27/15 S Morgan Burnett Calf probable Sunday vs. Denver
10/26/15 WR Davante Adams Ankle probable Sunday vs. Denver
10/25/15 DT B.J. Raji Groin “?” Sunday vs. Denver
10/25/15 LB Nick Perry Shoulder “?” Sunday vs. Denver
10/25/15 WR Ty Montgomery Ankle “?” Sunday vs. Denver
10/12/15 S Sean Richardson Neck IR
09/30/15 TE Andrew Quarless Knee IR – designated to return
09/22/15 DT Josh Boyd Ankle IR
09/16/15 LB Sam Barrington Foot IR
08/24/15 WR Jordy Nelson ACL IR

Free NFL Pick

Look both of these teams are lucky to be undefeated. The Packers should have lost against the Rams if not for a terrible performance by St. Louis QB Nick Foles who handed them the game and easily could have lost against Chicago and San Diego. The Broncos escaped with a win in Week 1 over the Ravens and the same could be said for their last three games against the Vikings, Raiders and Browns. So who is the play here? I like the Broncos. Denver arguably has played a tougher schedule based on their opponents’ offense and have superior numbers compared to Green Bay. The Broncos rank No. 1 for total yards allowed per game and passing yards per game and No. 4 for rushing yards allowed per game. It doesn’t end there with a No. 1 ranking in sacks and No. 2 in defensive 3rd down percentage. The only relevant defensive statistic that I could find that the Packers had a better ranking in was points per game ranking No. 1 at 16.8 points per game with the Broncos right behind them at 17 PPG. Offensively Green Bay holds a scoring edge with 27.3 PPG versus Denver’s 23.2 and a big edge in the running game with 123.9 yards compared to the 30th Ranked Broncos at 85 RYPG. The advantages that Green Bay has on offense is neutralized by Denver’s defensive edge making this game more of a coin flip. However, in this situation the home team gets the nod and when you have the home team getting points it makes this a value play.


Betting prediction and game analysis provided by Cliff Knox. You can get more of his expert picks for free by visiting Sports betting Stats

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