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Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Prediction and Betting Pick

Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Prediction and Betting Pick. The 60-29 Memphis Grizzlies host the 72-16 Golden State Warriors in Game 3 in a Western Conference semifinals series on 5/9/2015 at FedExForum, Memphis, TN Tipoff is at 8:00 PM ET.

Wagering Odds

Point Spread: Warriors -4
Over/Under Total Line: 196

In Game 2 the Warriors were at home and lost to the Grizzlies 97-90 where they failed to cover as a 10-point favorite. Before Game 2 Golden State had covered the spread in 2 straight games. The total for Game 2 went Under and that has been the winning bet for the last 3 Warriors games. In their last 10 games Golden State is 3-7 ATS and they have an O/U record of 4-5-1.

On the season the Warriors are 27-17-1 ATS at home and 22-21 ATS on the road. In their last game on the road Golden State covered the spread and in their last 10 games they have only played 2 on the road. The Warriors have an O/U home record of 22-22-1 and a road O/U record of 18-25. In their last game on the road the Under was the winning bet.

The Grizzlies evened this season with a win in Game 2 and that was the first game in their last 4 where they covered the spread. The total has gone Under in both games in this series. In their last 10 games Memphis is 7-2-1 ATS and they have an O/U record of 3-7.

This season at home the Grizzlies are 22-19-2 ATS at home and 22-23 ATS on the road. The last game for Memphis at home was a pick and in the previous 3 games they had covered the spread each time. The Grizzlies have an O/U home record of 14-29-1 and they have an O/U road record of 22-22-1. In 2 of the last 3 games for Memphis at home the Over has been the winning bet, but that last game went Under the posted total.

In the regular season the Grizzlies won and covered in the first game of the season facing the Warriors, but the Warriors won the last 2 games. In the 5 games these 2 teams have faced each other this season the Grizzlies are 3-2 ATS and the total has gone Under 4 times including in both games in this series.

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Some other angles to consider:

The road team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 games between these 2 teams.

The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games between these 2 teams.

In the last 5 games between these 2 teams the total has gone Under 4 times.

This season the Grizzlies are 34-10 at home and the Warriors are 30-13 on the road.

SU and ATS Records

Golden State Warriors: 72-16 SU / 49-38-1 ATS
Memphis Grizzlies: 60-29 SU / 44-42-3 ATS

Key Betting Trends

• GS is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
• GS is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
• GS has an Under record of 6-2 in their last 8 road games.
• MEM is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
• MEM is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• MEM has an Under record of 24-4 in their last 28 home games.

Sagarin Rankings
Golden State Warriors: 99.84
Memphis Grizzlies: 94.99

Injury Report

WARRIORS
[C] 05/03/2015 – Ognjen Kuzmic out indefinitely ( Ankle )

GRIZZLIES
NONE

Free NBA Pick

In Game 2 the Grizzlies handed the Warriors only their 3rd home loss of the season and now Memphis has home court advantage in the series. Mike Conley’s return for the Grizzlies was big in Game 2 going for 22 points, but the main reason they won was their defense. In the game Memphis held the league’s highest scoring team to only 90 points on 41.9% shooting.

Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson both struggled in Game 2 and they combined for 32 points on13/34 shooting. I think they will struggle again, as Memphis plays great defense at home. The Grizzlies may not get the win in this game, but they will at least keep it close and cover the spread.

Take the GRIZZLIES +4

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