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Gator Bowl Betting: Point Spread Prediction

12 PM EST Wednesday January 1, 2014, ESPN2

The Nebraska Cornhuskers face the Georgia Bulldogs in the Gator Bowl at EverBank Field in Jacksonville Florida.

In their last games of the season Nebraska lost 38-17 to the Iowa Hawkeyes at home as a 3 point favorite. Georgia came from 10 points down in the 4th to beat their state rival Georgia Tech 41-34 in 2OT.


Nebraska lost 2 of their last 3 games of the season.

The Huskers have the nation’s 19th ranked rushing offense led by RB Ameer Abdullah (1,568 yards 8 TD), who had his 8-game streak of 100+ rushing yards snapped in the season finale facing Iowa.

Georgia’s run defense will be key in this game and they rank 43rd in the nation in that department. In their season finale against Georgia Tech the Bulldogs gave up 263 rushing yards.

The Bulldogs are led by their passing offense, but senior QB Aaron Murray was lost for the season with a knee injury in the 2nd to last game. Hutson Mason will get the start under center and in the win over Georgia Tech he passed for 299 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Georgia -9.5
Over/Under Total Line: 60
Moneyline: Nebraska +285 / Georgia -345

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records

Nebraska Cornhuskers: 8-4 SU 6-6 ATS
Georgia Bulldogs: 8-4 SU 3-8-1 ATS
Key Betting Trends

  • NEB is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
  • NEB is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
  • NEB has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 non-conference games.
  • UGA is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
  • UGA is 1-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • UGA has an Over record of 11-3 in Bulldogs last 14 games overall.

Sagarin Power Rankings

Nebraska Cornhuskers: 74.22
Georgia Bulldogs: 83.80

Key Player Injuries


[WR] 12/16/2013 – Jamal Turner Ques Jan 1 (Undisclosed)
[S] 12/16/2013 – Wil Richards Ques Jan 1 (Ankle)
[LB] 12/16/2013 – Jared Afalava Ques Jan 1 (Knee)
[QB] 12/13/2013 – Tommy Armstrong Jr Ques Jan 1 (Ankle)
[DT] 12/9/2013 – Thaddeus Randle Ques Jan 1 (Knee)
[OL] 12/9/2013 – Mike Moudy Ques Jan 1 (Undisclosed)
[QB] 12/16/2013 – Taylor Martinez Doub Jan 1 (Hip)
[LB] 12/16/2013 – Courtney Love Out for season (Hamstring)
[OL] 12/16/2013 – Spencer Long Out for season (Knee)
[DB] 11/20/2013 – Daniel Davie Out for season (Knee)
[DT] 8/19/2013 – Kevin Williams Out for season (Knee)


[WR] 12/9/2013 – Clay Johnson Ques Jan 1 (Ankle)
[CB] 12/9/2013 – Paris Bostick Ques Jan 1 (Toe)
[S] 12/24/2013 – Josh Harvey-Clemons Out Jan 1 (Suspension)
[CB] 12/24/2013 – Sheldon Dawson Out Jan 1 (Suspension)
[QB] 11/24/2013 – Aaron Murray Out for season (Knee)
[RB] 11/2/2013 – Keith Marshall Out for season (Knee)
[WR] 10/20/2013 – Justin Scott-Wesley Out for season (Knee)
[WR] 09/05/2013 – Tramel Terry Out for season (Knee)
[WR] 09/01/2013 – Malcolm Mitchell Out for season (Knee)
[DB] 08/19/2013 – Reggie Wilkerson Out for season (Knee)

Point Spread Prediction

Both of these teams were expecting a more prestigious bowl, but hey they did get a New Year’s day bowl so we don’t expect either team to lay down here.
What stands out is the amount of turnovers that the Cornhuskers had this season. Normally we take the stance that you can not handicap turnovers, but in this case it is every week, so you it is more of an expectation than a fluke event.
What we also have to point out is even though Nebraska had a -14 turnover margin in their last 5 games, they were 3-2. The two losses were to the the best defensive clubs in the Big Ten where logic tells you it is much tougher to make up for mistakes against.
We like Georgia a lot, but they’ve been banged up all season and still are. We may be smoking the Big Ten Kool-aid but we believe that the Cornhuskers can win this game. The points may not be needed.Take the Nebraska Cornhuskers +9 at 5Dimes and start saving money on every bet!

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