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Florida State Seminoles vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Free Point Spread Pick

Time: 8 EST Saturday August 30, 2014 on ABC / ESPN3

Opening Line: Florida State -17.5
Over/Under: 63

You can tell that Florida State is absolutely stacked, as their offense lost 2 WR’s, 2 RB’s, and a center to the NFL and they are still the top-ranked team in the nation. It helps that they have the reigning Heisman winner under center in Jameis Winston and a defense that was the #1 unit last season.

The Seminoles head into this game as a big 17.5-point betting favorite in a game, which is being held at a neutral site at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Oklahoma State was 10-3 and played in the Cotton Bowl last season, but they are unranked because they return only 6 starters on offense and 4 on defense.

Last season Florida State was 11-3 ATS and they had an Over/Under record of 10-4 and Oklahoma State was 8-5 ATS and had an Over/Under record of 5-7-1.

Winston is back to lead an FSU offense that set a FBS record with 723 points scored last season and they also set the ACC record with 7.267 yards from scrimmage.

Winston still has a solid WR corps, All-ACC tight end Nick O’Leary, and he will be playing behind a solid offensive line that has 4 senior starters. He will be joined in the backfield by Karlos Williams, who is a former safety, which rushed for nearly 750 yards last season. He will lead a rushing attack that lost 1,600 rushing yards and 56% of the ground game from last season.

Another one of the key returning players from the Seminoles is WR Rashad Greene, who, is ranked in the top 7 in school history in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TD’s.

J.W. Walsh is the likely starter for the Cowboys and last season he passed for 1,333 yards and started 5 games. However, while he will be at the helm of an offense that averaged more than 39 ppg last season the Cowboys lost their top 2 receivers. Walsh will be tested in this game, as he not only has a young WR corps, but also faces a FSU secondary that is loaded. Last season the Seminoles led the nation in pass defense and had 26 INT.

Desmond Roland may be the key guy for the Cowboys, as the returning rushing leader has to play well in this non-conference game and last season he rushed for 811 yards with 13 TD and averaged 4.6 yards per carry.

Florida is 3-1 against Oklahoma State all time, but they have not faced each other since the 1985 season.

Betting Trends

Florida State is 1 ATS in their last 7 games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, and in their last 14 games they have an Over record of 10-4.

Oklahoma State is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games and in their last 9 non-conference games they have an Over record of 7-2.

Point Spread Pick

Yes this certainly is a square play and yes the backdoor is certainly a possibility here, but the Cowboys are not ready for the Seminoles. Oklahoma State has had a large player turnover and will need to get a few games under their b elt before they can compete with the Seminoles. I’m late getting this game to you, so you’ll have to lay a bit more;, but I would still be comfortable laying up to 20 points in this game.

Take the Florida State Seminoles -18.5 @ -105‏

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