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Florida State Seminoles vs. Louisville Cardinals Free ATS Pick

Opening Line: Florida State -5
Over/Under: OFF

Time: 7:30 PM EST Thursday October 30, 2014 on ESPN / WatchESPN

No. 2 Florida State (7-0) vs. Louisville (6-2)

Florida State has dealt with several issues involving players off the field and they now have another one, as top running back Karlos Williams may be suspended. However, with all going on off the field the Seminoles keep winning on it, as they have the nations longest winning streak at 24 games. They are a 5-point betting favorite facing a Louisville squad that is coming off a win and has won 4 of their last 5 games.

Jameis Winston leads a Seminoles’ offense that ranks 19th in the nation in points per game where their strength on offense is the aerial attack. FSU will be tested in this game facing a Louisville defense that leads the nation in total defense (245.8 yards per game) and rushing defense (68.8 ypg) and ranks 2nd in INT (15).

The Cardinals have a good offense and a balanced one and after leading the nation in defense last season FSU ranks 29th so far this season.

In their last games Louisville beat NC State 30-18 and Florida State beat Notre Dame 31-27.

Florida State is 1-6 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 3-4 and Louisville is 5-3 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 1-6-1.

On the season Louisville is 4-0 at home and FSU is 3-0 on the road.

Louisville is 16-2 in their last 18 home games.

The Cardinals have the nation’s 10th ranked pass defense and their secondary has one major concern and that is containing lead FSU WR Rashad Greene. While the Seminoles have a good WR corps stopping Greene is the key, as he has 791 receiving yards while the next leading WR has 307. Greene has over 100 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games including his last 2.

If Williams cannot go for FSU freshman Dalvin Cook will be the main RB. After rushing for a career high 122 yards against Syracuse he struggled in the Notre Dame game only rushing for 20 yards averaging 1.7 yards per carry.

Louisville is led by QB Will Garner, who passed for 203 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT in the win over NC State. The Cardinals have a decent WR corps, but their main worry on defense has to be ex-Auburn RB Michael Dyer, who rushed for 173 yards against NC State, which was his first start of the season.

Florida State ranks 62nd in the nation in pass defense and 48th in run defense.

Betting Trends

Florida State is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games, and they have an Over record of 7-2 in their last 9 road games.

Louisville is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and they have an Under record of 19-7-1 in their last 27 home games.

Free College Football Pick

The Seminoles opened as 8.5 point favorites at some betting shops and heavy action on the Cardinals now has this game at 4. I believe that Louisville is the correct play here, but I ton of line value is gone, so no analysis here and only a lean to the home team.

Lean: Louisville Cardinals +4‏

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