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Florida Gators vs. Florida State Seminoles Point Spread Pick

Time: 3:30 PM EST Saturday November 29, 2014, ESPN / WatchESPN

On the season the Florida Gators are 6-4 straight up and 5-5 against the spread. Recently they have been better against the number covering in three of their last four.

This year the Seminoles are a perfect 11-0 but a very poor 3-8 ATS as they tend to play down to their competition doing just enough to win.

In this matchup Florida State has won four out of the last five games straight up and against the spread with the only loss being by 1-point.

In their last games Florida beat Eastern Kentucky 52-3 and Florida State beat Boston College 20-17.

This season Florida State is 6-0 at home and Florida is 3-1 on the road.

Betting Odds
Point Spread: Florida State -7.5
Over/Under Total Line: 53
Moneyline: Florida -360

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Florida: 6-4 SU 5-5 ATS
Florida State: 11-0 SU 3-8 ATS

Key Betting Trends
• FLA is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• FLA is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• FLA has an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 games.
• FSU is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
• FSU is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
• FSU has an Under record of 7-0 in their last 7 home games.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Florida: 84.11
Florida State: 86.24

Key Player Injuries

FLORIDA
[QB] 11/24/2014 – Treon Harris probable Saturday vs. Florida State ( Knee )
[DL] 11/11/2014 – Leon Orr out indefinitely ( Dismissed )
[LB] 11/19/2014 – Jarrad Davis out for season ( Knee )
[LB] 11/19/2014 – Neiron Ball out for season ( Knee )
[RB] 09/25/2014 – Mark Herndon out for season ( Knee )
[TE] 09/07/2014 – Jake McGee out for season ( Tibia )
[LB] 09/04/2014 – Jeremi Powell out indefinitely ( Knee )
[CB] 09/11/2014 – J.C. Jackson out for season ( Shoulder )
[DL] 08/18/2014 – Thomas Holley out for season ( Hip )

FLORIDA STATE
[WR] 08/16/2014 – Isaiah Jones out for season ( Academics )
[LB] 08/28/2014 – Delvin Purifoy out for season ( Leg )
[DT] 09/25/2014 – Nile Lawrence-Stample out for season ( Pectoral )
[LB] 11/22/2014 – Matthew Thomas expected to miss 1st half vs. Florida ( Disciplinary )
[LB] 11/07/2014 – Ukeme Eligwe has been dismissed ( Dismissed )
[DB] 10/29/2014 – Colin Blake out for season ( Shoulder )
(!)[WR] 11/24/2014 – Rashad Greene probable Saturday vs. Florida ( Arm )
[DB] 11/23/2014 – Tyrell Lyons “?” Saturday vs. Florida ( Hamstring )

Next Game
Florida (NONE – Last game of Regular Season)
Florida State vs. Georgia Tech (ACC Title Game)

Pick against the Spread

I know the linesmaker is trying to get Florida money making this line 7.5 and the public is biting. The Gators can run the ball and that appears to be the recipe to compete against the Seminoles and many cappers may be hanging their hat on that. However, the key stat here is Florida’s road pass defense or lack thereof ranking No. 117 in the Nation. Florid Sate rolls in front of the home crowd here.

Take the Florida State Seminoles -7.5

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