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Florida Gators vs. Alabama Crimson Tide ATS Pick

Opening Line: Alabama -14.5
Over/Under: 52

Time: 3:30 PM EST Saturday September 20, 2014 on CBS

Florida Gators (2-0) vs. No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0)

For the last couple of seasons Florida is not the dominant powerhouse they are used to being and they are not ranked this season even at 2-0. However, that will change if they can pull off the big upset and beat Alabama in their house.

This is the first SEC game for Alabama and they have won 23 straight conference openers.

After a 10-point win over a good West Virginia team in their season opener they have had 2 straight blowouts where their offense has totaled 93 points. They will face a Florida team that almost lost their last game beating Kentucky in 3 OT for their first SEC win.

In their last games Alabama beat Southern Miss 52-12 and Florida beat Kentucky 36-30 in 3OT.

Florida is 1-1 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 2-0 and Alabama is 0-3 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 2-1.

Alabama is 3-0 at home and Florida is 0-0 on the road.

Blake Sims is likely the starter for Alabama in this game and he has one of the nation’s best WR’s in Amari Cooper, who already has 33 catches, which leads the nation, for 454 yards. Gators DB Vernon Hargreaves III, who Alabama recruited hard, will cover him.

Florida’s D has to deal with 2 great Tide RB’s in T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry, who each has over 200 rushing yards and each is averaging over 5.5 yards per carry.

While the Gators played solid run D in their win over Kentucky they were torched in the air giving up 369 passing yards.

Alabama has a stingy defense loaded with talent and will face a balanced Florida attack that had 295 passing yards and 237 rushing yards in the Kentucky game. In the game QB Jeff Driskel threw for a career-high 295 yards with 3 TD and 1 INT and WR Demarcus Robinson had 15 catches for 216 yards and 2 TD. The Gators may go to the air early and often facing a shorthanded Tide secondary.

Florida RB Matt Jones is averaging 6 yards per carry and he had a big game facing Kentucky. However, he has a tall task facing an Alabama run defense that held Southern Miss to only 56 rushing yards.

Betting Trends

Florida is 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games overall, 10-22-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and they have an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.

Alabama is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, and they have an Over record of 6-2 in their last 8 home games.

Alabama is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against Florida.

In the last 5 games between these 2 teams in Alabama the total has gone Under 4 times.

Free Point Spread Pick

Yes Florida triple overtime victory over Kentucky was less than impressive and reports are that the Gators offense may not be all that improved. However, the Crimson Tide defense certainly doesn’t seem to be up to par allowing West Virginia 23 in their opener and 12 to a poor Southern Miss team. I believe that this is by far the best rush defense that Alabama has faced and neither QB on the Bama roster scares me. I’m taking a position on the Gators with the points.

Take the Florida Gators +14.5 Bet This Pick At GTBets

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